Forex Forecast Polls


The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.



Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: Optimism surges ahead of the United States Consumer Price Index Premium

EUR/USD: Optimism surges ahead of the United States Consumer Price Index

An uneventful week ended with some more action, as choppy trading prevailed until Thursday. The EUR/USD pair seesawed in a tight range just above the 1.0700 threshold for most of the week, with the US Dollar (USD) finally giving up and extending its slide while heading into the weekly close.

Read full analysis

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling loses strength as BoE opens door to summer rate cut Premium

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling loses strength as BoE opens door to summer rate cut

Throughout the week, the British Pound (GBP) traded in a choppy fashion and struggled to extend gains seen in the previous couple of weeks against the US Dollar (USD), prompting GBP/USD to recoup ground lost in the first half of the week and flirt with the key 200-day SMA around 1.2540 on Friday.

Read full analysis

Bitcoin: Why BTC is close to a bottom

Bitcoin: Why BTC is close to a bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) price efforts of a recovery this week have been countered by selling pressure during the onset of the American session. However, the downside potential appears to have been capped. Markets have noted significant trading differences between sessions, and while the Asian market showed strength, whatever ground they were able to cover was oftentimes wiped out by traders in the US.

Read full analysis

Week ahead – US inflation numbers to shake Fed rate cut bets

Week ahead – US inflation numbers to shake Fed rate cut bets

Fed rate-cut speculators rest hopes on US inflation data. After dovish BoE, pound traders turn to UK job numbers. Will a strong labor market convince the RBA to hike? More Chinese data on tap amid signs of slow Q2 start.

Read full analysis

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk

The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it. 

Read full analysis

XAU/USD: Gold resumes rally amid fresh rate cut hopes Premium

XAU/USD: Gold resumes rally amid fresh rate cut hopes

Spot Gold price (XAU/USD) heads into the weekly close posting solid gains and changing hands at around $2,360 a troy ounce. XAU/USD struggled for direction, spending most of the week hovering between $2,300 and $2,330. The bright metal woke up on Thursday as market participants rushed to drop the US Dollar (USD) on renewed Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut hopes.

Read full analysis

WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?

The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.

  • Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
  • For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
  • Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
  • Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
  • Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics

The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.

 

HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.

WHY SHOULD I USE IT?

Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:

  • A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
  • No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
  • Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
  • A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
  • A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
EUR/USD Forecast GBP/USD Forecast USD/JPY Forecast AUD/USD Forecast
USD/CAD Forecast GBP/JPY Forecast NZD/USD Forecast EUR/JPY Forecast