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EUR/USD clings to modest gains above 1.0750 ahead of Fedspeak
EUR/USD clings to small gains above 1.0750 on the first trading day of the week. In the absence of high-tier data releases, investors will scrutinize comments from central bank officials. Later in the week, inflation data from the US could trigger a big reaction.
GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2550 ahead of key data releases
GBP/USD inches higher toward 1.2550 in the second half of the day on Monday. Ahead of Tuesday's labor market data from the UK and April inflation report from the US on Wednesday, the modest US Dollar (USD) weakness helps the pair hold its ground.
Gold loses traction, declines toward $2,340
Following the upsurge seen in the second half of the previous week, Gold stages a downward correction and declines toward $2,340 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.5% and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to extend its uptrend.
Crypto market under pressure from Bitcoin
Crypto market cap on Monday stands at $2.2 trillion, down 5.2% over seven days, although it showed some growth over the weekend. Local market capitalisation peaked on March 14th, but the active decline began about a month ago.
Five fundamentals for the week: Inflation and what the Fed says about it are in focus Premium
Will inflation finally fall? That is the question for markets, battered by four consecutive worrying releases of the all-important CPI. A warm-up with PPI, speeches by key Fed officials, and also a look at the central bank's second mandate.
DEEPER DIVE
Like there’s no tomorrow: Unpacking consumer credit
The recent run-up in revolving debt combined with the much higher financing costs raises doubts about the ability of credit to continue to make up for the shortfall between modest real income growth and aspirational spending.
Inventories are quiet, a little too quiet
The economy is in the midst of an unusually calm stretch with respect to inventory investment. It is like the point in the scary movie when someone points out that all the forest creatures have gotten quiet.
Softer growth, cooler inflation and rate cuts remain on the horizon
Economic growth in the United States appears to be in solid shape. Although real GDP growth came in well below consensus expectations and amounted to just 1.6% annualized in Q1-2024.
FXS Signals
Technical Confluences Detector
Gold flirts with $2,320 as USD demand losses steam Premium
Gold price flirts with $2,320 in the American session, trimming early losses that sent XAU/USD to a weekly low at $2,303.60. The US Dollar lost momentum after Wall Street's opening despite the poor performance of American indexes. The DJIA posts some modest gains, although the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 trade in the red.
Financial markets continue to struggle for direction in a week marked by the absence of relevant macroeconomic data. Speculative interest tries to take clues from Fed officials' words, but so far, none provide fresh clues that could spur some directional price action.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Could Worldcoin price shoot up 45% ahead of OpenAI’s live stream on Monday?
Worldcoin has formed a double bottom around a key support level, suggesting a potential accumulation. If the OpenAI’s Monday live stream has a positive impact on Artificial Intelligence field, it could positively impact WLD and other AI-based tokens.
Here’s what needs to happen for The Graph price to revisit $0.422
The Graph price trades inside the $0.192 to $0.494 range. Investors need to wait for GRT to overcome $0.343 before being bullish on GRT. If successful, GRT could rally 50% and revisit the $0.422 hurdle. A decisive daily candlestick close below $0.192 will invalidate the bullish thesis.
SingularityNET price could bounce 30% if AGIX can hold this level
SingularityNET price has been consolidating around the bottom of the $0.903 to $1.475 range for nearly a month. With some AI-tokens showing signs of revival, AGIX needs to be enalyzed for potential breakout opportunities like Arkham (ARKM).
Arkham price primed for a recovery rally ahead of OpenAI’s announcement
Arkham price eyes a potential reversal as it clears key hurdles. ARKM likely to rally 27% if it can overcome $2.74 resistance level. A breakdown of $2.28 wil invalidate the bullish thesis for the AI-based token.
THE STOCK OF THE DAY
SG stock spikes 34% on 26% revenue gain Premium
Sweetgreen (SG) stock stole the show on Friday. In a week that saw poor earnings announcements from many other growth stocks, Sweetgreen’s success contrasted sharply coming off the past year’s downtrend.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
WEEKLY FORECAST
EUR/USD: A better mood puts pressure on the US Dollar Premium
The EUR/USD pair seesawed in a tight range just above the 1.0700 threshold for most of the week, with the US Dollar (USD) finally giving up and extending its slide while heading into the weekly close.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling loses strength as BoE opens door to summer rate cut Premium
The British Pound (GBP) traded in a choppy fashion and struggled to extend gains seen in the previous couple of weeks against the USD, prompting GBP/USD to recoup ground lost in the first half of the week and flirt with the key 200-day SMA around 1.2540 on Friday.
US Dollar: Greenback regains strength, snapping two straight weeks of losses Premium
A tepid recovery during the week led to a bounce of the US Dollar (USD) to the area beyond the 105.00 barrier when gauged by the USD Index (DXY), reversing two consecutive weeks of negative price action.
Gold: Bulls return and aim for record highs Premium
Spot Gold price (XAU/USD) heads into the weekly close posting solid gains and changing hands at around $2,360 a troy ounce. XAU/USD struggled for direction, spending most of the week hovering between $2,300 and $2,330.
Bitcoin: Why BTC is close to a bottom
Bitcoin (BTC) price efforts of a recovery this week have been countered by selling pressure during the onset of the American session. However, the downside potential appears to have been capped.
Week ahead – US inflation numbers to shake Fed rate cut bets
Fed rate-cut speculators rest hopes on US inflation data. After dovish BoE, pound traders turn to UK job numbers. Will a strong labor market convince the RBA to hike? More Chinese data on tap amid signs of slow Q2 start.
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