FXstreet.com: Fundamental

U.S. Forex Market Commentary

info@gcitrading.com (GCI) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:17:47 GMT

EURO The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4890 level and was capped around the $1.4990 level. Traders took back some of yesterday’s profits ahead of the release of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes later during the North American session. Traders are trying to determine how aggressive the Fed may become in unwinding its monetary stimuli in the coming quarters. St. Louis Fed

US Session News Summary

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:10:20 GMT

US GDP Revised to the downside US third quarter second estimate annualized GDP came inline with the forecasted showing a growth expansion of 2.8% down from 3.5%, while the second estimate of the GDP Price Index for the same period plunged to 0.5%; worse than the expected reading and the prior reading that are at 0.8%. US Core PCE US third quarter second estimate Core PCE plunged to 1.3%; worse than the forecasted and the prior readings that came in at 1.4%. US Personal Consumption US third

Weak dollar ahead of the FOMC …

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:53:56 GMT

So far ahead of the FOMC meeting, the green Benjamin weakened and is loosing momentum throughout the currencies market as the world's largest economy expanded at a slower pace within the third quarter than it was primarily estimated, having in fact the third quarter real gross domestic product growth rate of 3.5 percent revised down to an annualized rate of 2.9 percent. In fact, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the green Benjamin in front of a basket of currencies, dropped within

Option traders sow the seeds at Origin Agritech

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:12:55 GMT

SEED – Origin Agritech Ltd. – Frenzied options activity continues today on Beijing-based seed producer, Origin Agritech, following yesterday’s announcement that the firm received approval from China’s Ministry of Agriculture to sell its genetically modified phytase corn. Shares are currently up 4% to $10.86, down from an intraday high – and 52-week high – of $11.75. Bullish investors took root in the December contract, purchasing 6,900 calls at the December 12.5 strike for an average premium

Today's Live Show: Global Fundamentals to Watch When Trading the USD

trader@allthingsforex.com (AllThingsForex) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:52:54 GMT

Forex traders, join the daily All Things Forex broadcast- a live one hour program covering Forex and major economic events, trend developments, research, analysis, ideas, education, live traders forum, interviews with some of the most respected names in the trading world, and much more.. In the broadcast today: Global Fundamentals to Watch When Trading the USD. We ask the experts Mr. Steve Meizinger, Director of Education at ISE- International Securities Exchange, and Mr. Jack Crooks, Chief

US: PREVIEW of FOMC Minutes of November Meeting due at 1900 GMT

info@ransquawk.com (RANsquawk) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:08:01 GMT

Are markets getting ahead of themselves? Speculation was rife that the Fed will finally alter its language and move towards a move hawkish stance. Some analysts even debated whether the statement – “rates to stay low for extended period” will disappear altogether. However, the Fed spoiled the party and kept to its prudent statement on economy. The question investors should really ask themselves is whether the expectations that the Fed should indeed change its tone are practical at this time or

US: Consumer Confidence Rises in November

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:04:37 GMT

The Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.8 points in November to 49.5. While the increase was better than expected, the underlying data remains abysmal. Consumers remain extremely worried about job prospects. About the Only Thing That Improved Was the Headline The Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.8 points in November to 49.5. While the increase was better than expected, the underlying data were extremely weak. Most key components either weakened or remained near record-low levels. Consumers remain

The yen and dollar strengthened

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:05:45 GMT

The Japanese currency and the greenback advanced after earlier losses against higher-yielding currencies on concerns in markets as stocks fell despite the upbeat German and U.S. confidence data. The dollar index, a measure of the dollar's movements versus a basket of major currencies, is currently at 75.20 compared with today's opening at 75.13. As regards to the euro-dollar pair, it is showing a slight decline on the daily and 4-hour charts. The better-than-expected German data lifted the

TraderPlanet Daily Currency Analysis

info@traderplanet.com (TraderPlanet.com, LLC) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:44:10 GMT

EUR/USD The dollar weakened again on Monday, undermined from comments by regional Fed Governor Bullard. He stated that the Fed’s bond-buying programme should be extended beyond the current period to give greater policy flexibility for 2010. The comments reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain a policy of very low interest rates and an aggressive monetary policy to support the economy. The Euro initially rose to near 1.4950 with higher gold prices also contributing to downward

Indications that the Euro's rally could be running out of some steam

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:51:13 GMT

Market Summary The greenback is down, reversing early gains, although the greenback’s decline is perhaps limited considering today’s range of data. Eurozone figures, including confidence, manufacturing and consumer spending data, painted a consistent picture of European recovery, while non-Eurozone data were generally stronger as well. But as we have seen over the past several sessions, the euro has struggled to gain much traction on this favorable news, a further indication that

Bonds fail to make headway on latest banking crisis

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:38:25 GMT

In our earlier FX View I noted that the dollar had failed to benefit for more than a microsecond on several emergent reports questioning banks’ capital adequacy. Chinese state-owned banks have to consider raising more capital after strong lending depleted capital ratios. We can think of worse circumstances for needing more capital. Rather the topic is a rear view look at the progress made by central banks in their efforts to shore up the global banking system. While the dollar is back to

USD firms on concern about German West LB bank

info@easy-forex.com (Easy Forex) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:38:44 GMT

FX Highlights The USD is trading mixed to higher supported by a dip in risk appetite sparked by report of S & P’s concern over capital shortfalls at some large global banking firms and worries about German banks, FAZ reports that Germany’s West LB bank may be allowed to become insolvent, news about German bank troubles was partly offset by stronger German IFO, BOE Governor King warns about UK debt, Swiss UBS consumption index shows improvement, rift between the Japanese government and BOJ

London Gold Market Report

info@bullionvault.com (BullionVault.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:33:08 GMT

Gold Hits Fresh USD, Euro & GBP Records as UK Central Bank Bets Its Pension on Inflation-Linked Bonds THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE gold in the professional market hit a new record London Fix of $1170.25 an ounce early Tuesday, while Asian stock markets closed the day lower and the US Dollar slipped on the forex market. Crude oil also fell back. Government bonds ticked higher. One London gold dealer noted a "sense of disappointment" that gold failed to reach $1200 an ounce last night as the

South Africa: Economy exits recession

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:29:12 GMT

The South African economy grew 0.9% q/q (seasonally adjusted, annualised) in the third quarter this year. Details The South African economy advanced by 0.9% q/q (seasonally adjusted, annualised – s.a.a) in the third quarter compared to revised -2.8% q/q registered in Q2 (previously -3.0% q/q). The outcome in the third quarter was somewhat better than our and consensus expectations. On an annual basis the South African economy contracted by 2.1% y/y in Q3, which was also better than expected

Norway: GDP better than at first sight

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:22:10 GMT

Today Statistics Norway released Q3 GDP figures. Mainland GDP was up 0.5% q/q, (we expected a rise of 1.4% and consensus plus 0.8%). Hence, at first sight, the figures were somewhat disappointing. However, a closer look at the figures reveals that overall demand was up 1.8% q/q while the contribution to growth from the change in inventories was minus 1.3%. Otherwise, the contribution from private consumption, fixed investments and net exports where roughly as expected. In particular, the

World's largest economy growth revised to the downside but remains artificial…

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:19:34 GMT

The third quarter's U.S real gross domestic product growth rate of 3.5 percent is forecasted to be revised down to an annualized rate of 2.9 percent, due to the widening of the county's trade deficit, as the 3.5% growth detected within the third quarter seemed artificial and should actually be strongly questioned and explained; since the jobless rate jumped beyond expectations reaching above 10 percent for the first time since 1983. In fact, today's revised annualized third quarter growth

Risk aversion takes a back seat

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:18:14 GMT

A slew of overnight woes concerning the health of banks around the world was limited in its support for the U.S. dollar. One year ago that evidence would have been enough to raise the heartbeat of the bears and send the pre-market futures down by 2%. Today, equity index futures continue to point to another positive North American session and the net impact is to provide a prop for the euro rather than the U.S. dollar. The euro also rose after the strongest reading for 15 months in a poll of

Currency Currents

jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:14:17 GMT

Key News ECB prepares to end emergency funds (Financial Times) German Business Confidence Increases to 15-Month High, Exceeding Forecasts (Bloomberg) Mexico Peso Set to Rally 20% as Pimco Says Buy After Fitch Debt Downgrade (Bloomberg) Quotable “Alea iacta est.” Julius Caesar FX Trading – A Good Price for the Euro Perhaps you saw this morning’s release of Euroland’s economic data.

Euroland: IFO climbs like a rocket

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:12:16 GMT

The Ifo economic expectations indicator increased strongly for the eleventh month in a row. Today’s Ifo is possibly even better than the good German PMI figures that were released yesterday. On all accounts the data were better than both consensus expectations and our more upbeat projections. The strong rebound in Ifo expectations signals that the sharp increase in German industrial production will continue. We anticipate that the German rebound will continue at full speed in the coming months

US Morning Briefing

info@ransquawk.com (RANsquawk) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:34:37 GMT

Overnight News Asia: In equities the Nikkei hit its lowest close in four months as banking shares were sold on persistent worries that more financial firms would tap the market for equity financing and as a stronger JPY hurt shares of exporters. Japan Airlines Corp plunged to a record low on worries about a possible bankruptcy, while consumer lender Takefuji Corp fell nearly 7% after a two-notch downgrade from rating agency Moody’s to a level indicating a very high credit risk. (RTRS) JGB’s

GoldCore Update: Gold Prices Move Higher in a World of Paper Currencies and Paper Promises

info@goldcore.com (GoldCore) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:17:30 GMT

Gold Gold has maintained last week’s and yesterday’s gain and is currently trading near record nominal highs at $1,166/oz, £705/oz and €781/oz. New levels of resistance and support are $1,175/oz and $1,152/oz. While gold is overbought in the short term it is behaving like a stubborn mule that refuses to go down. A variety of concerns continue to support gold and these include worries regarding the sustainability of the economic recovery (both in China, the US and in other leading industrial

Currencies ahead of U.S. data

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:35:21 GMT

The focus in the U.S. economy today is on the third quarter GDP reading, in which expectations will show that the nation will annually expand by 2.8% from the prior 3.5%, and the revision downwards will be due to lower retail sales and a wider trade gap. The Dollar Index, which usually measures strength of the dollar versus six major currencies, is currently climbing as it is traded at 75.21 while recording a high of 75.44 and a low of 75.10. From the euro zone;

German IFO survey hits 15 month highs

sales@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:03:07 GMT

European Market Update: German IFO survey hits 15 month highs; European bourses shakes off initial concerns over financial sector ECONOMIC DATA - (MA) Malaysia Central Bank Interest rate maintains its overnight Rate at 2.00%; as expected - (RU) Russian Central Bank cuts its Refi rate by 50bps to 9.0%; In line with views -(FI) Finland Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.1%e - (GE) Germany GDP SA Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -4.8% v -4.8%e; GDP NSA Y/Y: -4.7% v -4.7%e - (GE) German Q3 Final Private

Investors will be eyeing the Q3 GDP estimates

info@odlsecurities.com (ODL Securities) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:38:55 GMT

Jumping house sales released yesterday, plus the prospect of no rise in interest rates in the immediate future, led investors to flee the Dollar once again, and move in to stocks. Investors will be eyeing the Q3 GDP estimates, released by the US Commerce dept at 1330. Market News German IFO numbers showed November business confidence coming in ahead of forecasts South Africa snapped three consecutive quarters of negative growth, with data showing that GDP grew 0.9% quarter on quarter.

German IFO Climbs to the Highest Level in 15 Months

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:45:43 GMT

After a tumultuous year in 2008 and grim first quarter in 2008; world economies started to show improvement starting from the second quarter, where the pace of progress continued into the third quarter, where most major economies returned to growth. It seems that recovery is gathering strength ahead of the New Year, where major economies are expected to show a full recovery. Today, after the release of Germany's GDP for the third quarter, which grew 0.7% in the three months ending September

US: Sales of existing homes surge in October

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

Home resales surged in October on the back of a 9.7% jump in single-family homes (about 88% of total sales). As today’s Hot Chart shows, the last time sales were up so briskly for that segment was January 1983 when the unemployment rate stood at 10.4% (near its current level). This goes to show that at some point, pricing becomes so compelling that those households with at least one member employed are induced to start spending again if they believe that price deflation is no longer a threat.

Oil Price Trades Narrowly with a Soft Tone Ahead of US GDP Data

contact@oilngold.com (Oil N' Gold) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:37:39 GMT

Crude oil price trades with a mildly bearish tone today after volatile trading Monday. The benchmark contract (January) edges lower towards 77 ahead of US GDP data and FOMC minutes. Gold price rebounds after dropping below 1160 earlier today amid speculations on further central bank buying. The IMF said it plans to complete the sales of 403 metric tons of gold as soon as possible. After purchases from India and Mauritius, there is news saying Russia and Sri Lanka may be buying. Silver price

Hungarian central bank cut rates by another 50 bps

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:46:46 GMT

Headlines Currencies: CEE currencies calm down on strong US housing data Fixed Income: Hungarian central bank cut rates by another 50 bps Hungary The Hungarian forint continued to follow global equity market sentiment and the central bank’s 50bps rate cut to 6.50% did not change this pattern. The bank highlighted the better inflation outlook over the short-term, but also added that the government will likely miss this year’s budget deficit target by a small margin. The market did not care much

Contrasting the ECB with the Fed

info@econometer.org (Econometer.org) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:25:02 GMT

Whether its year end book closing/profit taking and/or renewed doubts about the shape of recovery, asset markets have turned south recently. Investor mood appears to be souring as risk aversion creeps back into the market psyche. A string of disappointing US data releases over the last week including core retail sales, Empire manufacturing, industrial production, and housing starts, contributed to the reduced appetite for risk, resulting in a soft finish to the week for equity markets and a

Daily Forex Overview

info@dukascopy.com (Dukascopy Swiss FX Group) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:57:51 GMT

Previous session overview The euro fell against the yen and dollar in Asia Tuesday as anemic Asian share markets encouraged short-term players to sell the risk-sensitive common currency. The dollar was also down against the yen, trading hands at JPY88.90 compared with JPY89.02 late Monday. Selling by Japanese exporters in the morning session in Tokyo weighed on the U.S. unit, traders said. At 0450 GMT, the euro was down at JPY132.88 from JPY133.22 late Monday in New York. Against the dollar,

Precious metals pause as concerns surface over economic recovery

info@thebulliondesk.com (The Bullion Desk) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:00:43 GMT

London, 24 November 2009 - Risk appetite remained upbeat yesterday as equities and commodities gained and the dollar weakened, meanwhile gold pushed to a new record above $1170/oz as further buying was seen ahead of the December option expiration. The CRB Index posted a tame 0.1% increase despite the strength in precious metals and a 1% gain in crude oil. US equities were more buoyant with the Dow and S&P500 ending up 1.3%. The Dollar Index finished the day down 0.6% while holding in the

Dollar's Day of Data; GDP, Consumer Confidence, Fed Minutes

enquiries@worldfirst.com (World First UK Ltd) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:46:45 GMT

All this and more is available on our video blog It was a quiet day on FX markets yesterday with most crosses not straying from ranges that had been set down last week. GBP/EUR danced around the 1.11 level after services and manufacturing PMIs from the eurozone showed that expansion in those industries was still happening albeit it a reduced rate than previous. That caveat weakened the euro slightly but did not deal it a knock-out blow. The dollar continued to lose ground on a trade

US: Existing home sales at highest level since February 2007

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:35:28 GMT

In October, US existing home sales rose by 10.1% M/M to a total number of 6.10 million, while the consensus was looking for a figure of 5.70 million. The previous outcome was however slightly downwardly revised from 5.57M to 5.54M. The details show that both the single-family (9.7% M/M) and the condo’s (13.2% M/M) sub-index surprised on the upside in October. Also months’ supply improved significantly, falling from 8.0 to 7.0, which is the lowest level since February 2007. Both the median and

Europe Ahead: Germany's GDP Unrevised as Imports and Exports Rise

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:11:44 GMT

Germany, the biggest nation in the euro zone, continued to expand in the third quarter as a result of restocking inventories and more spending on machinery and equipment. Also, the expansion in the economy was led by higher exports and imports; while exports are the biggest factor that fuel economic growth. Germany's GDP seasonally adjusted for the third quarter's final reading was unrevised at 0.7%, which was also inline with expectations; while non-seasonally adjusted stood

FX: EUR/USD revisits the 1.5000 mark

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:23:43 GMT

On Monday, the reflation story was back. We already attended this kind of market reaction a few times before of late. A similar move occurred on Monday last week. There was not really one specific headline story to explain the flaring up of investor optimism. Nevertheless, the global context of gradually improving eco data and a globally stimulating policy approach is sometimes enough to trigger a broad move higher. Yesterday, the pieces fell again at the right place. Fed’s Bullard (usually

The testimony of BoE King and other governors will attract attention too

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:38:46 GMT

Markets: Fixed Income On Monday, global bonds ended narrowly mixed, a very strong performance in the face of buoyant equity markets. US yields were flat to 2 basis points lower, the curve flattened, while German yield ended up 2-to-3 basis points, the very long end underperforming. A soft comment of the Fed hawk Bullard, late on Sunday, on the desirability of the continuation of the MBS Agency assets purchase program after its planned expiry at the end of March might have played a role in the

European Session: Dollar Back In The Ranges As Risk Appetite Oscillates

support@ac-markets.com (ACM - Advanced Currency Markets) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:07:59 GMT

Market Brief Right on cue, the next whim of risk aversion has kicked in just as EURUSD looked to be on the brink of threatening the top end of its range at 1.5000. The catalyst today has been a poor session for Asian equities, prompted in part by Standard & Poor’s bleak assessment of Japanese banks; citing Sumitmo Mitsui and Mitsubishi UFJ as among the banks with the weakest capital. The Shanghai Composite is also down nearly 3.5%, allowing the USD to recoup some of its losses from the

Economic Indicators Review

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 07:37:45 GMT

Canada – In September, factory sales were up 1.4%, reversing in part the 1.8% decline a month earlier (revised upward from -2.1%). The upsurge was entirely attributable to motor vehicles and parts (+15.6%). Gains were partially offset by a 28.6% pullback in aerospace products. New orders sprang 8.3% while inventories decreased for an eighth straight month, shrinking 1.9%. The inventory-tosales ratio thus sank to an 11-month low. In constant dollars, manufacturing sales climbed 1.8% on the

The BOJ: the Japanese economy is "picking up"

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 07:30:15 GMT

The Bank of Japan released its monthly report for recent economic and financial developments today. The bank raised its assessment for economic conditions saying that the economy is picking up due to stimulus measures taken in Japan and around the world. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and decided to end corporate debts purchases by the end of this year as it was scheduled, while the bank decided to extend the limitless lending program till March 31 accepting the low

Majors declined ahead of the U.S GDP

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 07:28:56 GMT

Major currencies declined today against the green currency during the Asian session ahead of the U.S GDP seasonally adjusted reading for the third quarter which is expected to show an expansion by 2.9% from a previous 3.5%. The USDIX gained today recording a high of 75.34 and a low of 75.10. The euro dollar pair declined today recording a low of 1.4912 and a high of 1.4958, having the union currency trading around 1.4920. Today's drop came after the pair rallied yesterday from the 1.4865 levels