Tech Trading

EUR/GBP Swing trade strategy

2011-06-14T08:01:21.000Z

Shorting the cross on any strength to the hourly 55EMA around 0.8800 and 0.8825. Stop placed above 0.8850 resistance area with multiple targets.

Target 1 at the 61,8 retracement in 0.8750s and Target 2 in 0.8670s support zone

Good luck trading!

César B.Leiceaga

GBP/JPY Strategy

2011-06-07T10:44:48.000Z

After the upside breakout through the bear trendline and EMA resistance I'm buying the dips to 131.80 and 131.35 pivot. An initial target lays at today's option expiry in 132.25 and leaving a second target at 133.00 area. Stops placement under 131.00.

Good luck to everyone!

César B.Leiceaga

Silver finally takes off

2011-05-26T10:58:42.000Z

Target accomplished just shy of $39, adding again if the dip extends to $36.00.

Good luck!

EUR/USD Giving a buy signal

2011-05-19T10:00:00.000Z

Here's my trade idea: Bought on the bearish trendline breakout or wait for a pullback to enter. Placing STOP under the weekly pivot en 1.4208, most comfortable under the figure. Target 1 in 1.4300 and Target 2 in 1.4350 (Weekly R1)

Good luck trading!

César B.Leiceaga

Silver reverses from major trendline support

2011-05-13T11:15:47.000Z

We are getting a bounce off major trendline support an a fantastic reversal candle. I'm already long and adding in any dips to target the top in 49.50. Stay tuned!

Buying opportunity in silver?

2011-05-09T12:06:16.000Z

Yes everyone,silver is still in an uptrend from a long term perspective and after all, this months margin hikes had a sole purpose: shake out the weak hands. The target was accomplished and from an investors point of view this could represent the ideal timing to position ourselves on the long side of the trade bearing in mind silver's physical delivery remains scarce up to date and along with other commodities they represent a hedge against inflation which is one of main concerns around the globe.

To reinforce my theory, check out the latest CME Silver positioning, the crowd now turned net short:

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Pinpointing an optimal entry area to target at least 49.50s on the long run, I like the 33 floor up to 36 area to start buying the precious metal. Let's see the evolution of price first....

EUR/JPY Deeper retracement expected

2011-05-03T10:39:36.000Z

The pair has recently eroded trendline support, has been rejected at the weekly pivot in 120.17 and drilled down a medium term 38.2% Fib support from the whole up swing 116.43 - 121.81. Anything else??

On my radar screen for a "sell on strenght" trade.

Regards.

César B.Leiceaga

Silver slowly recovering

2011-05-02T10:30:00.000Z

Silver bounces off the S2 weekly pivot in 42.23 after the unexplained sell-off. This has brought savvy investors into the bid at lower levels.

The metal is currently trading above resistance level in 44.58 and further resistance levels are to be tested sooner or later starting from 46.00/20 area.

Bear in mind the shake out has taken out of the market many "weak longs" and big players will probably join into the buy side after marking a bottom at the 42 area.

EUR/CHF Selling rallies

2011-04-29T10:02:29.000Z

Mi idea is to sell rallies up to 1.2900s with a 50/60 pip stop and targeting the lower part of the wide range that seems to be stuck in... What do you guys think?

Regards.

EUR/JPY 15 min strategy

2011-04-28T10:00:00.000Z

Buying this dip at 121.20s assuming we've got a trendline breakout in the 15 minute chart. Placing stops below the pivot point and a first target at 122.00.

Good luck!

César B.Leiceaga

EUR/USD Long strategy

2011-04-26T10:41:16.000Z

Approaching my buy zone for the US session.

Waiting for the retracement to find support between the 15min EMA cluster support starting from 1.4600 and the daily pivot in 1.4580.

STOP placed below S1 pivot in 1.4525 and TARGETS in 1.4650 high and 1.4675/80 (daily R2 pivot)

Good luck!

César B.Leiceaga

Commerzbank's Strategy on EUR/JPY

2011-04-21T06:49:06.000Z

According to Commerzbanks Analyst Karen Jones:
"EUR/JPY is attempting to stabilise and reassert its upmove. Ideally a sustained break above 120 should reignite upside interest for a retest of 123.33, the recent high"

Their trading strategy for today's session:

"Long 119.48, buy dips to 118.45 placing stops below 117.70. Cover 126.00"

Source: Commerzbank Technical Analysis Research

Rabobank sees strong correlation between USD/JPY and DJIA

2011-04-19T08:56:34.000Z

According to Jane Foley from Rabobank: "There has been a strong correlation between USD/JPY and DJIA since the start of 2011"
She says "Simply put while the Japanese fundamentals argue for a softer yen, this outlook only has gravitas in a "risk on" enviroment and so for now the JPY looks set to see decent support"

Source: Dow Jones News

CDS Update

2011-04-15T09:57:11.000Z

Greek 5year CDS has moved 15bp to 1105, whilst the 10Y GGB yield is around 13.30%. The spread vs Bunds is close to 990bp as media highlights fears of a possible default.

Ireland's now around 605bp after Moody's downgrade.

And Spain's Bono/Bund spread trades 10bp to 199bp.

European Market Recap

2011-04-14T11:02:48.000Z

# Dollar Index hits fresh 16-Mth lows, Euro and Yen firmer
# Inflation risks have risen, oil the main driver - ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo
# Greek January Jobless Rate jumps to 15.1%, a new record
# Greek CDS hits record highs, leads European default costs higher
# CIC plays down Spanish saving bank investment reports
# Even chance Finland blocks Portugal aid - FinMin official
# March Nationwide consumer confidence 44 vs 39 pvs
# Swiss April ZEW investor sentiment surges to 8.8, -13.5 pvs
# Aussie & Kiwi lifted by signs of Asian growth
# Zloty leads CEE FX higher on rate hike expectations
# Yuan at record highs, gradual appreciation prevails
# Chinese FX reserves soar past $3Trln

JPY Crosses Rumours

2011-04-14T06:22:33.000Z

Decent bids at 120.20 area have been able to place a base on the EUR/JPY. Japanese were the initial sellers and turned buyers at the lows along with other model funds.
There was more buying interest reported in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY after initial sales. Dealers confirmed aggressive buying in AUD/JPY from 87 figure.

Millionaire Traders Part 1

2011-04-13T09:24:35.000Z

Gold facing critical pivot cluster resistance

2011-04-13T07:49:14.000Z

Critical pivot resistance clustered between 1459 and 1460 that correspond to the Weekly pivot and Monthly R1. Above we find bearish trendline resistance close to 1462 and below the first support lays at 1454 (daily pivot). A key area to be watching before taking action.

Retail Positioning - Updated 8:40GMT

2011-04-13T06:52:22.000Z

European Session Recap

2011-04-12T10:59:10.000Z

# UK March CPI +0.3% M/M, slips to +4.0% Y/Y
# UK trade deficit shrinks again on record exports
# Sterling slides, gilts extend gains after UK inflation
# German March CPI confirmed at +2.1% Y/Y
# German April ZEW falls to 7.6, 14.1 pvs 11.0 exp
# Chinese Premier Wen pledges investment to Spain
# Yen remains volatile as risk interests gyrate
# Aussie & Kiwi skids overnight vs JPY & USD on profit-taking

Silver's sell-off explained

2011-04-12T07:23:36.000Z

The sell-off explained according to Bloomberg:

"A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will plunge 37 percent by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high. The 100,000 options to buy 100 shares each of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at $25 by July changed hands at the ask price of about 10 cents and exceeded the open interest of 6,054 outstanding contracts before today, indicating that a buyer of a new bearish position initiated the transaction. The ETF rose to the highest intraday level since trading began five years ago, $40.33, before erasing gains. It fell 0.5 percent to $39.67 at 12:54 p.m. It hasn’t closed below $25 since November."

The good news for the bulls is the weekly pivot at 39.87 remains intact for the moment, if price manages to find support around here we could get another push to challenge 41.93.

EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY conducted the sell-off

2011-04-12T06:31:35.000Z

EUR/JPY: Stops tripped on breaks below 122.00 and 121.00. More stops eyed under key support level 120.00. Offering interest noted on rallies towards 121.00

AUD/JPY: heavy sales out of Tokyo hitting stops sub 88.00, 87.50,87.00 and more eyed below 86.80.

Both holding above their respectives daily S3 supports at 120.31 and 87.01

Market Recap

2011-04-11T10:55:11.000Z

- Sterling at 5-Mth lows against Euro on diverging rate outlook
- Swiss Franc trapped in band after ECB rate hike
- Aussie scales fresh highs against Yen and gains vs Dollar
- ECB interest rate increase a secondary issue in Ireland - Honohan
- World needs more cooperation on financial oversight - Fed's Dudley
- BoE should raise rates gradually - MPC's Sentance
- Yuan steady, China uses currency to fight inflation

- USD & EUR to session lows against JPY on fresh quake

CDS Market Brief

2011-04-11T09:53:35.000Z

Quiet start to the trading week, with no direction ahead of the awaited Q1 earnings season.

In broader credit, iTraxx Main was 1/2 bp wider at 95 and Crossover 2bps wider at 361.

We've had the Independant Banking Commission's recommendations on the restructuring of the UK banking system, detaching retail from investment banking.

Peripherals: Portugal despite political uncertainty over the austerity measures for the bailout is 10bps tighter at 530.

Opposite move in Greece's 5yr CDS out to 1010 as debt concerns persist. Cash 5bps wider to Germany and 2bps to Portugal.

AUD/USD Strategy

2011-04-11T07:06:08.000Z

Hello everyone,

I'm closely watching commodities edging higher on inflation concerns and dedicating my trading strategy to only "BUY" on corrective moves to support areas. I've chosen the AUSSIE amongst other currencies or commodities because of its technical situation.

My strategy is buying the dip towards 1.0500/30 support area (trendline+hourly 55EMA) adjusting the STOP to 1.0470s and TARGETING 1.0580 and R1 in 1.0615

Remember that 63% of retail traders are positoned short and "crowds" are usually wrong.

Best Regards,

César B.Leiceaga

Spain will not be the next to ask for help

2011-04-08T09:11:18.000Z

UK Telegraph points out that after Ireland has already used up 67.5billion Euro with another 90billion Euros or so to go to Portugal.

The Telegraph also points out that Spain's funding needs over the next three years amount to 400billion Euros with another 70billion Euros potentially needed for bank recapitalization according to Deutsche Bank estimates.

Nearest Government Bond Auctions

2011-04-08T09:04:30.000Z

Fx Concepts looking to sell the EUR/USD

2011-04-08T08:52:43.000Z

"The euro can reach 1.4435 by Friday and if seen we will sell. It will then decline to late next week and will reach our initial target of 1.4150. If the decline is aggressive, it will fall to the week of April 18 and our objective is 1.3975.
Following this low it will resume the uptrend into June and could reach 1.4800 before a significant peak is formed. Only a close above 1.4435 implies a rally directly to June"

Source: Market Insight Report from FX Concepts

Gold, Silver and Oil grinding higher

2011-04-08T08:41:04.000Z

Another marginal high in GOLD 1467.36Usd on spot SILVER has broken through to a record high 40.13Usd following a jump in ETF holdings.

SPDR EFT bullion holdings also reversed its mid-week plunge, jumping to the highest level since mid-Mar.Market talk of very active dollar hedging/fund bids on any dips, as well as physicals covering shorts.

Oil trading just off the 111.48 session high with Asian accounts picking up on the IMF WEO report of oil markets entering a period of scarcity.

GBP/JPY Getting supported on the 140.00 tap

2011-04-08T08:21:17.000Z

Supports for both GBP/USD and USD/JPY into the 85.20s is a good size buy order from a UK clearer.
Gbp/Jpy has not traded above 140.00 since May 2010. On a successful breach, next topside targets would be 140.60, 142.30 and the 142.75 fibo (50% of 163.05/122.45 move)