The Disciplined Trader

EUR/USD - Fun with fractals - Elliott Wave and ‘Ending Diagonals’

Pierre Charlebois — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:53:24 +0000

The EUR/USD has been making a series of what appears to be ABC moves.

This is suggestive of an “ending diagonal”. I have marked up the chart to show each series and it is also reasonable to see that each ABC series is a reasonable fractal of each other. Repeating the same pattern over and over as well as smaller patterns of the same, coming together to form a larger similar pattern.

What is not quite yet clear is how big the overall pattern is likely to become. Clarity will come as the pattern continues to play out.

What might the last move be on the EUR/USD?

Pierre Charlebois — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:05:48 +0000

I’ve been asking myself how significant the recent top on this pair might be.

There are two possibilities as I see it from an Elliott Wave perspective.

The count in black depicts a the first leg of an ending diagonal. Which means the retracement should end above 1.4650 and then reverse back up.

The count in red has a better potential for another high in the near term but it may also be complete.

I think overall the upside trend is still in play until a move below 1.46

EUR/USD - Will the new top be significant?

Pierre Charlebois — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:16:32 +0000

The price action has breached the month old high. What will be the outcome: new highs? re-tracement? reversal?

USD Index bound by range

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:08:23 +0000

The Index appears caught in a range. There is a potential for a revisit of the lows. from there the risk turns to the upside.

New FX Weekly report posted

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 02:37:54 +0000

Please visit.

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/fx-weekly-report/2009-11-23.html

GBP/USD - What could the path be for the next few months?

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 02:10:23 +0000

I’ve looked at this pair from an Elliott Wave perspective and came up with the following count.

This count become invalidated if we make a new high before completing a new low or at least a 5 wave down that comes very close the the recent low.

EUR/USD consolidation will lead to break out - The question is “which way”

Pierre Charlebois — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:27:24 +0000

The EUR/USD has been confined to a narrow range over the last 20 days.

The range has narrowed considerable in just the last week, so a break is due shortly. There is roughly equal argument for the direction of the break. The next 48 hours or so should give way to the range break-out.

GBP/USD - Will there be a double top?

Pierre Charlebois — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:39:54 +0000

The GBP/USD has retraced virtually all of it’s losses since early October. The August top of 1.7040 is in striking distance.

The ascending trend-line appears to be containing the current price action. It should be respected as reasonable support.

New FX Weekly Report posted

Pierre Charlebois — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:06:27 +0000

New FX Weekly Report posted

Please visit:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/fx-weekly-report/2009-11-15.html

EUR/USD - Is a new trend forming?

Pierre Charlebois — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:44:21 +0000

The price did not make a new high on the pair but came within pips before reversing.

What should be observed then is 1.4626. This may be an important support.

Let’s see if a new Chanel is indeed forming.