The Disciplined Trader

USD gains reversed… Will this challenge old highs and lows?

Pierre Charlebois — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:49:05 +0000

We have seen a very strong two day reverse on the USD gains.

The price on the index currently sits at the .618 retracement so much lower and the old bottom may be eclipsed whereas a turn at current levels would be typical of a 1-2 in Elliott Wave terms.

If we make new lows on the index I would expect another sudden reversal back up. We may find the market choppy and volatile for the rest of the week until we settle this trend change.

Candle patterns that really matter on the EUR/USD

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:28:25 +0000

Candle patterns that really matter

In my trading I love to analyze based on Elliott Wave. However I rarely make a trade unless I also get a candle pattern to fit into my model. In fact, with a strong candle pattern I often take the trade even if I think it doesn’t match my EW count the way I would be most comfortable.

Here are some observations on the 4 hour EUR/USD chart. The most recent tradable candle foretold of the quick rise today where most inexperienced traders might of been looking only for sell opportunities.

I think this is the correction necessary prior to the second force drop. The next move should be a drop but the overall correction may not be over yet.

New FX Weekly Report posted

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 01:45:08 +0000

New FX Weekly report

Please visit

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/fx-weekly-report/2009-11-02.html

What is the most likely path for the EUR/USD next?

Pierre Charlebois — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 18:46:37 +0000

Being an Elliottician I am cautious to always look for more than one potential wave structure and count. Elliott is a good tool and ultimately helps greatly however I believe one must be very careful at not being attached to any one expected outcome.

Here are two (and I’m sure there are many other possibilities) potential wave counts on the EUR/USD.

I think the key level to watch is for a break below 1.4682

USD Index shows evidence of a larger turn

Pierre Charlebois — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 08:22:31 +0000

Here’s a view of the USD Index on a 4 hour chart. The break is very impulsive looking and should top out in a nice 5 wave pattern. (and I think it’s not quite done yet)

Then the form of the pull-back would idealy be in 3 waves and then a launch back into 5 waves up.

The most likely in the short term is a wave 4 and 5 over the next two days. This equates to the same on the EUR/USD only reversed.

EUR/USd makes larget one day move in over a month

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:14:55 +0000

I posted earlier that the last top could give way to a drop below the current trend-line and that it could be significant.

Volatility has returned to the EUR/USD. This in itself does not guarantee a turn however it comes at the end of a long trend. A rebound and new low could now define the trend.

EUR/USD made another new top

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 04:57:16 +0000

The pair made one more top.

Now a break below the trend-line would be significant.

New FX Weekly Report posted

Pierre Charlebois — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 04:53:20 +0000

Please visit

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/fx-weekly-report/2009-10-26.html

EUR/USD could make new top above 1.5059

Pierre Charlebois — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:09:29 +0000

New highs are possible on the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD 1.5059 could be significant

Pierre Charlebois — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 01:06:47 +0000

The reverse from there is strong and should be at least a temporary top.