The intraday charts are all in swing mode as the Wave is heading higher across the board.  The breakout has occurred so quickly and covered so much ground that now it’s a matter of waiting for a correction to support.  The 15 minute chart would be the fastest and most aggressive time frame to use.

Here’s an expanded view (not in the market memory view) of the 15 minute chart with the Fibonacci Retracement levels drawn from the last major move - assuming that the high at 1.5094 holds.

The correction back to the Wave would mean a full or 1005 Retracement, however more aggressive entries can be taken off 38.2% and 50% level.  I think that the 61.8% would be a good balance between a more aggressive Fibo-based swing buy and still waiting for a deep pullback.

Both charts were created with MT4 and the Autochartist Chart Pattern plug-in.

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This chart was created with MT4 and the Autochartist Chart Pattern plug-in.

The five minute chart limits both exposure and potential reward but it’s a nimble time frame.  Here’s a look at mu intraday swing-daytrading on the EUR/USD.  The idea behind going so short term is to compensate for the wide range and rapid shifts in opinion that can often whipsaw the longer intraday time frames.

The idea here is to buy “between the greens” as long as the trend is up which means that the five minute time frame must be in a mark up cycle in order to begin looking for entries with this approach.

The fact that the five minute chart will transition through the market cycles at more rapid pace and also offer more aggressive pullbacks is at the heart of this approach.

And while this time frame can and often does lead to “over-trading”, don’t force trade with this time frame and set up…with 12 new candles each hour there will be something that set ups properly on one the pairs.  In fact, one of my favorite pairs to trade with this approach is the GBP/JPY which I almost exclusively trade with this five minute strategy.

* “over-trading” to me is not excessive trading because really what does that mean; what’s the number that is “excessive”?  Thus over-trading is executing trades when the set up criteria was not properly met not the filters for the trade followed.  In essence, “over-trading” is really bad trading set ups!

The Continuation Channel Up pattern is the current set up to watch as prices are testing the uptrend line support and look very close to a breakdown.  However the high Initial Trend could indicate that this is
merely a correction to uptrend line support and the continuation could find buying support as prices move along support between 1.4980 and 1.4965.  Remember that if prices do want to move higher off the
channel support, the Forecast area waiting from the the wedge is waiting between 1.4990 and 1.5020.  If prices do break lower down through channel support, initial support will come in at 1.4940.

Both charts alerts courtesy of Autochartist.

There’s two opportunities here and I’m focusing on the short term time frames because it’s Friday and it’s still early in the New York session.  The clarity of the market cycle is also a factor.  Notice the mark down cycle is steep and the bounce cold trigger the channel’s resistance and this could be a buy trigger which would be aggressive since the trend is down.  However, the short would be best with a higher bounce above both the channel’s resistance and the 23.6 Fibonacci Retracement level and at the 34ema low.

This chart was created with MT4 and the Autochartist Chart Pattern plug-in.

Another way of identifying resistance and perhaps a short entry is the Three Point Retracement that has formed on the 15 minute chart as well.  The rally to C represents a 0.618 to 0.786 correction of the AB leg.  Since the market is sideways and also trading under 1.4900 keep an eye on the area between C and the A high at 1.4898 as this is a sell zone.

Both chart were created with Autochartist Chart Pattern and Fibonacci Pattern software.

This chart was created with Autochartist Fibonacci Pattern software.

Here’s a look at the 30 minute cable last night as it was trending higher and a rising wedge formed WITH 34ema high support.  One of my favorite ways to set up patterns is when the support (or resistance) of a trending patterns (like this rising wedge) falls within the support or resistance of my 34ema Wave.  Notice how the uptrend line support of the wedge is lined up the the 34ema close of my Wave…

The swing entry would be valid anywhere between the 34ema high and the uptrend line support.

Once the trade is triggered - in this case off the 34ema high - I will take note of nearby psychological levels and pull a Fibo Retracement or Extension.  Here I pulled an Extension because I did not see a “clean” last, major move.  There was actually a somewhat ugly ABCD Fibonacci Pattern…which had me focusing on the 78.6 and 88.6 levels as a potential ceiling.  Remember that the wedge pattern has a resistance level to watch as well!  the to line of the wedge will also act as a ceiling unless prices are able to pierce it.

And here’s what the market did after bouncing off the support of the Wave.  I also want you to notice the resistance of the wedge - it was never broken.

All three charts were created with MT4 and the Autochartist Chart Pattern plug-in.

This chart was created with Autochartist.

Longer term charts can take the ebbs and flows of bounces and pullbacks while still trading within a pattern.  A 240 minute chart will move more within a single candle than a 30 or 60 minute typically can or will.  This has to do with the power of time:  If given enough of it prices will cover more ground.

The pullback with the pattern hit 1.4826 and created the touchpoint for the uptrend line all while the Initial Trend dropped - this means that the uptrend is likely transitioning to distribution or accumulation.  The channel itself does not indicate a trend but simply support and resistance.  Confirm the pattern with the Wave. (see below)

The uptrend line is still very important as the market cycle moves sideways as this would be a potential breakdown if momentum shifts lower.

This chart was created with MT4 and the Autochartist Chart Pattern plug-in.

The 15 minute EUR/USD is trading just below the downtrend line resistance of the channel down pattern as prices are finding selling pressure between 1.4880 and 1.4900 which are the minor and major psychological levels that are still holding on the this short term intraday chart.  A breakout on this chart would be in line with the swing bounce that the daily chart off the support of the Wave.

The USD/CAD is in a strong mark down cycle so we’re in swing mode waiting for a bounce to the bottom line of the Wave or more aggressively to the top line of the falling wedge pattern.  The 34ema low is currently at 1.0466 but remember that this is a dynamic level and will change as prices move.  Note that the short off the downtrend line is much closer a short trigger than the Wave low.  The 30 minute chart swing short has a 34ema low triggering at the 1.0447 which sets up the short just in front of the 1.0450 psychological level.

UPDATE: The wedge has broken at the downtrend line resistance and prices have broken the top line of the Wave and triggered a trend reversal on the 60 minute chart.  The horizontal blue line which is at 1.0499 is the forecast area which is the upside target and resistance for the breakout as well at the 1.0500 level.

This chart was created with MT4 and the Autochartist Chart Pattern plug-in.