The Advisor Weblog

2012, What do you think you need to know?

2012-01-05T15:47:39.000Z

That market evolvs constantly is no news. The thing here is if we are able to adapt fast enough to survive on it. What will then, this 2012 bring? More banking jitters, higher chances of default in Europe, and more runs to the dollar on a continuous improving economy would be my educated guess.

Correlations may stay, or may change; I’m seing the beginning of a return to the dollar/stocks correlation we had before the 2007 crisis, yet is early to comfirm it. Maybe tomorrow’s NFP in the US will gave us a good hint.

However, I found more interesting the fact that several professional traders, had based their new year resolutions in one, just one thiny word (with a huge meaning): DISCIPLINE. Either with masters en economy or psychology, the one thing in common is working on improve discipline. Something we all know, but not so sure if we all apply when trading. If you are looking for a successful 2012, then work on your weak points by stablishing a disciplined working plan.

I particularly loved Walter Peters, and Yohay Elam remarks, and be sure, I’ll be watching those two to see what they did by the ends of 2012 ;)

You can read their opinions and others, here:

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/2012-resolutions/2011/12/28/13/

The EUR/USD today

2011-12-21T13:40:13.000Z

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. At least, that’s what we are seeing in the EUR/USD, that lose over 100 pips in less than an hour and after posting an intraday high of 1.3197 trading now below 1.3100 as European stocks erase daily gains and turned red. The ECB 3 years refinancing auction that exceed expectations and reached 489.2B, was the trigger of the latest fall.

Strong retracement from mentioned high suggests the recent bullish rally may have been just corrective, and the pair is ready to resume the downside, as breaking below key support, the 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart around 1.3040. Indicators are still flat above their midlines yet increasing selling now targets the 1.2980/90 lows posted earlier this week."Below this last, 1.2944 past week low comes as next support ahead of the 1.2870 yearly low. Short term resistances are located at 1.3070, 1.3110 and the strong 1.3145/60 price zone.

If you want to read more info about what’s going on, check the Beginners Corner, where I added the latest and the most important stuff you need to know today ;)

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/beginners-corner/

US session sees limited dollar slides

2011-12-15T14:56:36.000Z

Corrective Thursday that's it. Dollar is slightly lower against major rivals, as stocks soar on US positive news. But both technically and fundamental, movements will likely remain limited. I will rescue Angela Merkel's words from yesterday, saying there is no easy or fast way out of the European crisis.

Both the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD are trading below their 4 hours 20 SMA that act as dynamic resistance intraday. Anyway, here is the short term outlook for majors for current session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/12/15/02/

Happy trading all!

The EUR/USD today

2011-12-14T12:15:41.000Z

The EUR/USD is being continuously sold against major rivals, either if we have bad news, or no news at all. Is a “just in case” thing now; investors can’t trust no more in the EU authorities, and here we are, breaking below 1.3000 by the time of writing. It won’t be easy to see the common currency regaining the upside beyond some corrective movements in the upcoming weeks; is no longer a matter of sentiment, but of trend.

Quoting around 1.2980, the next obvious big figure is the 1.2870 price zone, this year low (short term supports today are located at 1.2950 and 1.2915 ahead of it). 4 hours chart shows momentum and RSI in oversold levels after the pair lost the last 360 pips almost straight yet so far there are no signs of a bullish correction. For today, resistances are located at 1.3035, and the 1.3070 area; gains beyond 1.3145, past October low, seems pretty unlikely right now.

Dollar time

2011-11-16T14:41:46.000Z

Hi everyone! While dollar keeps extending gains, European stocks struggle to remain in green today, after a positive start, now off daily highs. Data coming from the Euro zone, and the UK continues disappointing, while improving in the US; despite Wall Street opened slightly red, I do still believe that is dollar time: the worst seems to be over in the US, while just starting at the other shore of the Atlantic. Intraday short term corrections against it, will be just be seen as opportunities to buy the greenback.

Here is the short term updated perspective for majors:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/11/16/02/

Have a great trading day!

Now, Spain

2011-11-15T14:30:00.000Z

Fears continue spreading all over the euro zone, as the differential in between Spain and German yields reached the widest since 1995. Europe has taken too long to pay attention to the debt issues and now will pay the consequences. In the meantime, new Prime Ministers are having a hard time just starting: Greek Lucas Papademos has Samaras, the opposition leader that would not sign the written pledge the EU requires before releasing the next trance of aid, while Italian Mario Monti, is facing resistance on forming a cabinet. Investors remain wary on their ability to bring sweeping reforms to their nations.

Lets remind a small detail refreshed early Monday by a German magazine: the German government has been preparing for an early exit of Greece from the euro zone. The talk is around since a couple of months ago. But if one leaves, what will halt the other troubled countries from doing the same? And then, which will be the consequences for the euro. Honestly, I believe is also late for that. If debt contagion has made euro lost over 800 pips in a couple weeks, can you imagine the domino effect of countries leaving the area? That will be the end of Germany, and I don’t think they can afford it. They will gave up on their constant demands of austerity to troubled sooner than later.

And the world rolls around the euro zone: risk aversion leads markets today, with local share markets in red and US futures set to an open lower. Some corrective movements are now being seen, yet again, I would be considering rises as selling opportunities.

Here is the short term outlook for the American session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/11/15/02/

Have a great trading day!

US opening, Greece, Berlusconi and Gold

2011-11-07T14:35:24.000Z

Hi everyone! Week opened with a touch of optimism, as if the failure of Papandreou was something to cheer about. In the meantime, data of the euro zone come out worse than expected, with confidence down, as well as retail sales and industrial production. Not a minor data that shows a slowdown in consumption and so, in economic recovery.

And while Greece woes seems endless, Italy is now adding to the euro bearish case, as rumors of a Berlusconi resignation (lately denied) hit the wires earlier today. Italy’s huge publish debt is next hurdle in the euro zone area as today, the benchmark government bond yields rose to their highest since 1997 at 6.67%. The Italian debt is one of the highest in the world.

And the market barometer continues pointing for more risk aversion check the daily gold chart: the metal is testing the 61.8% retracement of the September slide from $1920 to $ 1532, around $ 1772: in fact gold is barely above it, with a clear bullish tone as per higher highs and higher lows daily basis.

I don’t believe the dollar has the strength to resume a bullish trend; but if there is a currency that we could consider even weaker, that’s the Euro.

Here is the hourly perspective for the US session on major crosses:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/11/07/02/

Have a great trading day!

Smells like tricky NFP

2011-11-04T11:22:45.000Z

Hi everyone ! Friday again, with another NFP; and ahead of the news, I have a couple of thoughts to share. First, the Canadian employment data was just released and was terrible bad, not just worse than expected, but really negative. Canada and the US are closely related and reports tend to come in line. Chances of a negative reading in the US have just increases exponentially.

On the other hand, I have been covering live this report for centuries with Fxstreet, and everyone wants to know about the euro. Don´t watch the euro with NFP; neither the Pound. Both currencies tend to remained trapped in ranges, in between dollar weakness/strength, and stocks rises/falls. The USD/JPY on contrary will react straight to greenback, while the AUD/USD will react straight to market sentiment. Both are far more interesting to trade than EUR/USD or GBP/USD.

Anyway! I have updated the Beginners Corner with all you need to know ahead of the news, so take a look at it here:

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/beginners-corner/

Have a nice trading day, and a better weekend!

Ahead of ECB

2011-11-03T11:30:00.000Z

Good morning to a new day in forex paradise!

Optimism is up this morning, with dollar losing ground since early European morning, despite Italian 10-Year Bond Yield rose to a new record in the euro era, at 6.399%, and that Greece won’t be able to pay wages for state workers and pensions next month without a planned injection of £8 billion of EU cash. The aid has been suspended by the EU and IMF until the referendum planned for Dec 4^th is done.

I was expecting market to be a bit more cautious ahead of Mario Draghi’s first act as European Central Bank President; markets expectations are those of keeping benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5%.

Ahead of the news, the EUR/USD is testing the 1.3830 static resistance area. The pair needs to break above it to be able to regain some bullish momentum towards 1.3900 and 1.3970 later, while another deep below 1.3710, should mean an approach to the 1.3600 area.

I will be covering the ECB Live, from FXstreet.com home page. See you there and happy trading!

Majors ahead of US opening bell

2011-11-01T13:33:44.000Z

Tuesday is all about risk, as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called a referendum and a parliamentary confidence vote, risking pushing the country into default if rejected by voters. I swear, he does it on purpose! Really, what can be on a man's mind taking such decission in current situation? I´m really starting to suspect Greece wants dracma back.

Jokes a side, the greenback soars across the board on US Treasuries demand, and stocks are pointing for a selloff session in the US. We may see some consolidation and some limited pullbacks due to extreme overbought dollar readings but seems the trend is clearly set for the rest of the day regardless indicators.

Here is the short term perspective for major crosses for the upcoming hours:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/11/01/02/

PS: I know personal stuff is not what you are looking for here, but I'd love to share; past March, I lose my dad on a stroke, and my life has never been the same. Miss him every second of every day. Yet this week, my baby brother has made me an aunt. Life continues... and smiles are back. I'm now a happy aunt, of a gorgeous baby girl ;)

Never forget what really REALLY matters in life, Happy trading!

Quite complicate week just starting

2011-10-31T12:00:00.000Z

Hi everyone, and welcome back to a new week in this crazy forex market. BOJ intervention past Asian session is old news right now, yet still a hot topic: would a standalone intervention will be enough to keep weakening the yen? Check the “From the editors’ desk in the Beginners corner: there is a full article that includes FinMin Azumi statements, saying that they intervened in FX market to take firm steps against speculative action, adding that they will continue to intervene until satisfied, and more interesting comments. Here is the link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/beginners-corner/

In the meantime, past week COT report shows the USD/JPY is still white bearish, but of course, it does not includes this latest move. The rest of the crosses had turned pretty much neutral there, and I guess that ahead of the FED, the ECB and the US NFP, we are going to face a couple of choppy trading days, with loads of volatility included.

When it comes to the EUR/USD, the optimism seen past Thursday is quickly diluting; the daily chart is showing an increasing bearish potential after the pair found resistance in a Fibonacci level, while price now struggles with next one. A daily close fairly below 1.4000 could put the pressure back towards 1.3840/60 price zone for the upcoming sessions.

There are a lot of pending questions right now, of what we can expect from trend; besides yen intervention, Mario Draghi will preside his first ECB meeting, and set the path for upcoming ones. I do believe there are high chances of a rate cut there, that may put more pressure on the Euro. Bernanke in the US, will probably come with a dovish/pesimistic outlook that will only exacerbate risk aversion sentiment. Yet of course that's what I expect, not what will happen. The wait and see will be long these days.

Happy trading all!

So much of a "final solution"

2011-10-26T14:49:05.000Z

Dollar soars across the board as ECB member Stark claims the crisis is far from over. I don't know, maybe I'm to naive, but honestly was not expecting nothing different.

EUR/USD trades at 1.3827, with 1.3850 now as immediate resistance, and looking for a test of the 1.3770 area.

GBP/USD will remain bearish as long as below 1.5960, and I would expect more loses below 1.5910, nearing 1.5850, roof of the broken triangle.

USD/JPY is immune to market movements and holds steady below 76.00. Bias there is bearish still

USD/CHF may approach 0.8900 and even higher near 0.8970.

Tic-Toc, Beginners Corner updated with all you need to know ahead of the EU summit

2011-10-26T09:39:11.000Z

Hi guys! I updated the Beginners Corner with some interesting data you may want to check, ahead of the EU summit. A first fundamental overview, followed by a couple of trading strategies for both, forex and indexes today.

If however, you are interested in learning along with being informed of what may happen today, I would particularly recommend the Black Swan article posted in the Fundamental Overview in the "From the Editor's Desk" section.

Here is the link!

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/beginners-corner/

Also, here is the schedule of the summit: we have plenty of time ahead to read ;)

11:00 GMT - Merkel mades a speech

15:15-15:45 GMT - Arrival of the EU members

16:00-17:00 GMT - Meeting of the 27 liders of the EU

17:15 GMT - 17 lider countries summit

Enjoy.

Renewed Beginners corner

2011-10-24T16:00:00.000Z

Hi everyone! I have been working lately to improve the Beginners Corner, and I would really appreciate any feedback on it. I want it to be a bit more interactive, and provide useful information for the intraday trader. Go and take a look here:

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/beginners-corner/

The major changes are a currency table that is based on technical analysis, fundamental perspective, the COT positioning and market sentiments. The reader can see at one glance the intraday trend and strength for each of the major currencies. The idea is to help traders to take decisions accordingly, opening a wider vision of the market, and not just limited to EUR/USD.

Right below, you will find the key fundamental event of the day that may affect the short term trend, along with a selection of trading strategies from FXstreet.com website so the reader can see where advanced traders are looking at and start and try to understand the logic behind.

Besides, when it comes to the educative webinars, I understand that one single point of view of the market, one single trading style, is not educative enough: from now, we will have special guests each month, showing us different ways of analyzing and trading. Is really an honor and a pleasure for me to announce that Dale Pinkert will be our first guest this Thursday the 27^th, at 20.00 GMT. He will present us his trading strategies, and 2 weeks later, we will review it according to my point of view.

I believe it will be more than interesting to see where the common points among different experienced traders are. We can all learn a lot ;)

Here is the link to the session, enjoy!

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=7d22f4ff-783f-443d-9aa2-38db76bc8086

US Opening Bell

2011-10-12T13:39:59.000Z

Impressive rallies for breakfast, this European morning, after EUR/USD took the 1.3700 level. Mrket explode, risk game is on and US stocks opened strongly up, approaching September monthly highs, not a minor data.. Keep an eye on US indexes as if they break higher, dollar will keep sliding.

Whether if this optimism, triggered by hopes the EU announcement will show firmer action on the debt crisis developments is enough to save Greece from default and strenghten banks, is something I still doubt. BUT, be sure, I won't be fighting the dominant trend.

Here is the short term outlook for majors, for current American session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/10/12/02/

Have a great trading day!

The EUR/USD today

2011-10-11T11:30:19.000Z

Optimism, pessimism risk appetite, risk aversion, up and down there we go. Besides being an expert in macroeconomic, today to follow forex market you will need also a degree in psychology.

Jokes aside, sentiment is still ruling the forex market, and as easy we can see optimism rise, we can see it fade. So fasten those stop loss if you trade short term! ;)

EUR/USD daily chart shows that regardless bullish momentum continues building up, the pair remains capped by the strong Fibonacci level around 1.3660. Even 4 hours chart shows the pair was unable to open a candle above it. That’s the minimum the pair needs to do confirm further gains today.

Guess the Slovakian Parliament has the power to decide the where we are going today. Here is the short term perspective for the pair updated:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/10/11/

Have a great trading day!

EUR/USD appoaching key level

2011-10-10T11:39:16.000Z

The EUR/USD is about to test a key level, the 1.3660 area; take a look at the daily chart:

I would expect a small retracement if reached, yet if we consolidate nearby, we may see a break higher in the pair, with 1.3800 area as next strong resistance zone. Here is the technical update of the cross:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/10/10/

PS: do you know what RORO is?? Check FXstreet.com glossary and find out!:

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/glossary/

EUR/USD ahead of ECB

2011-10-06T09:23:14.000Z

Today’s ECB meeting, will be important, not only because market expectations regarding latest economic policy, yet also because is the end of Mr. Jean Claude Trichet mandate. Up to now, and despite not his favorite roll, he managed to kept euro zone away from collapse, with emergency measures. But those measures, particularly the purchases of troubled governments' bonds, mean long-term risks for the bank's credibility. And the collapse is not that far away: Greece default is still pending like a Damocles’ sword above EU head.

This week however, the Euro is finding support in EU authorities talk about coordinating measures to recapitalize banks. Barroso announced just now that they are proposing coordinated actions, but no details come out yet, not an explanation on how they will do it.

Reading news, here and there, Bloomberg says: “Investors betting against the euro- area surviving its debt crisis in one piece may be overlooking one thing: the will of politicians to hold it together. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is intensifying her defense of the currency. French President Nicolas Sarkozy says there’s no alternative to channeling aid to Greece without risking the kind of cataclysm set off by the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.” However, and despite the politicians will, won’t be an easy road. The euro zone, will have to fight long with this crisis, and as said before several times, is just starting.

Anyway! EUR/USD is higher today, breaking above the 76.4% retracement of this year bullish run. Still early to say, a weekly close above this 1.3370 area, could favor further gains in the pair with the 61.8% of the same rally at 1.3670. Daily chart holds the bearish tone, so if we lose back the 1.3300 area, the pair will likely resume its bearish trend.

Short term talking, 4 hours chart has a very shy bullish tone, as per price above 20 SMA and momentum heading higher above 100 level, showing no much strength right now. Resistances for the upcoming hours come at 1.3410, 1.3460 and the 1.3500 area. Supports at 1.3310, 1.3260 and 1.3200.

Ahead of US opening

2011-10-05T13:26:24.000Z

Yesterday's strong recovery against greenback was limited by strong midterm levels in several major crosses, suggesting up to now, movement has been corrective.

While the EUR/USD was halted at the 76.4% retracement of this year bullish run around 1.3360, GBP/USD topped at 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart, still bearish and today at 1.5490.

The EU looking for a coordinate recapitalization of financial institutions was not the only factor that triggered the strong come back in stocks: FED's Chariman Ben Bernanke, said that the Operation Twist did not accomplished its target, and sort of opened doors for QE3; QE3 means more money (despite worths nothing) so US investors hapily run to buy stocks (cheap as indexes were around year lows).

However, today better than expected ADP points for a positive NFP next Friday, meaning no QE3 needed, while tomorrow, more easing is expected from BOE and ECB. I still see current rises as corrective an unless a clear break of the mentioned key levels, not seeing too much of dollar slides.

Anyway, here is the short term outlook for major crosses, for the upcoming US session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/10/05/02/

EUR/USD daily chart: bearish, bearish!

2011-10-04T12:25:52.000Z

Daily chart in EUR/USD suggest the pair is now looking for the 1.2870 area, this year low. The key resistance level to watch is the 1.3560 area, 76.4% retracement of this year bullish run. Indicators support the bias as per 20 SMA holding a strong bearish slope while momentum heads back south after failing to overcome the 100 level. I would say that recoveries here, will be understood as selling opportunities in the cross.

For today, here are the key levels to watch:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/10/04/

Majors ahead of US opening

2011-09-30T13:32:41.000Z

Is not just risk aversion what we are seing today, yet also dollar strength. One may wonder from where that strength comes, as data lately is far from encouraging. Market may be already pricing in more easing from BOE and ECB next week.

Pointless to fight the trend, here is the outlook for majors for this American session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/09/30/02/

Today's trend

2011-09-28T10:18:30.000Z

Still present, optimism fades this Wednesday, with markets eyes on Finland and Germany, where the EFSF’s changes will be submitted to parliament today. I won’t be expecting anything different than an approval, after recent comments from EU authorities. However, I can’t stop thinking that at the end, more bond buying and a larger fund is no different from US QE.

Past Tuesday movements so far, seem to have been just corrective in the midterm at least; there has been not much follow trough over Asian session nor current one, yet a clear break of yesterday’s highs, may trigger more dollar slides today. Looking at the market, I also found quite interesting the fact that Aussie retreated over 100 pips from parity yesterday. Selling interest there supports the idea of more midterm dollar gains. Anyway of course, I could be wrong.

According to the 4 hours chart, here is today’s trend.

EUR/USD:

Bias: Bullish – The 1.3540/50 area limited the downside pretty well, while the pair is above a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.4281, Sept 6th high. As long as above 1.3620 chances are of further gains today.

Supports: 1.3620 1.3580 1.3545

Resistances: 1.3680 1.3710 1.3740

GBP/USD:

Bias: Slightly Bullish – Short term daily ascendant trend line holds the downside around 1.5590. If below, daily bias will likely turn bearish.

Supports: 1.5590 1.5550 1.5510

Resistances: 1.5660 1.5710 1.5750

USD/CHF:

Bias: Neutral – Yesterday’s bearish move will likely remain limited. More slides may come below

0.8870, not seen yet.

Supports: 0.8930 0.8870 0.8840

Resistances: 0.9000 0.9045 0.9100

USD/JPY:

Bias: Bearish – Back below 76.50, still limited to recent days range.

Supports: 76.10 75.90 75.40

Resistances: 76.50 76.75 77.10

Today’s trend

2011-09-27T10:29:19.000Z

Optimism rules today with stocks and commodities strongly up, as latest market rumors suggest the EU is ready to widen the European bailout fund, to prevent more debt contagion. Seems the rescue plan has been discussed by G20 over the weekend. Still, market is not showing much confidence as both Euro and Pound hold near recent multi months low.

According to the 4 hours chart, here is today’s trend.

EUR/USD:

Bias: Neutral – Still limited below 1.3550 area. Break of the last may favor an approach to 1.3630/50 area on market positive mood. Indicators however hold the bearish path.

Supports: 1.3480 1.3440 1.3400

Resistances: 1.3520 1.3550 1.3590

GBP/USD:

Bias: Bullish – Correcting lower from the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5747/1.5330 rally. Correction may reach 1.5490 (38.2%) yet a bounce back higher should be expected there.

Supports: 1.5490 1.5460 1.5420

Resistances: 1.5560 1.5600 1.5655

USD/CHF:

Bias: Slightly bearish – Pushing towards the daily ascendant trend line coming from 0.8647 (today at 0.9010); break lower seems still unlikely.

Supports: 0.9000 0.8930 0.8870

Resistances: 0.9045 0.9100 0.9145

USD/JPY:

Bias: Neutral – Range bound, the USD/JPY needs a clear break either below 76.00 or above 77.10, to give signs of life.

Supports: 76.10 75.90 75.40

Resistances: 76.50 76.75 77.10

Today’s trend

2011-09-26T09:47:45.000Z

Markets had been shocked past week, after the FED announced a 400B new tool to reactivate their economy. Called “operation twist”, FED decided to sell their short term debt, and buy up to 30 years one in order to lower long term yields.
The immediate consequence has been strong deeps in stocks and commodities that favored the dollar particularly against commodity and European currencies. Weekly opening saw gold plunging almost $ 100 which only exacerbated dollar gains, although positive tone in European stocks had reversed dollar rally.

According to the 4 hours chart, here is today’s trend.

EUR/USD:
Bias: Still bearish – Key resistance is 1.3540/50 area, 20 SMA and 38.2% retracement of past week fall.

Supports: 1.3440 1.3400 1.3360

Resistances: 1.3480 1.3520 1.3550

GBP/USD:
Bias: Bullish – Gathering momentum around 1.5500. More gains once steady above 1.5520 are to be expected.

Supports: 1.5460 1.5420 1.5370

Resistances: 1.5520 1.5560 1.5600

USD/CHF:
Bias: Bullish/Neutral – Daily ascendant trend line coming from 0.8647 (today at 0.8990) should limit

Swissy attempts to rise.

Supports: 0.9060 0.9035 0.8990

Resistances: 0.9100 0.9145 0.9180

USD/JPY:
Bias: Bearish/Neutral – Chances of a break lower persist as long as below 77.00 area.

Supports: 76.10 75.90 75.40

Resistances: 76.50 76.75 77.05

Intervention.... really?

2011-08-10T12:23:00.000Z

I have stated several times that single intervention from a Central Bank is not enough to change a trend, and USD/JPY proved me right. We have just erased all gains set after past week intervention movement, with the pair now barely 20 pips above the all time low. And I’m expecting now further slides in the cross; check my short term report about it:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/08/10/

The SNB reported past week that it has lost 10.8 billion francs (near, $13.5 billion) in the first half of the year due mainly to the recent surge in the Swiss currency."The appreciation of the Swiss franc against all major investment currencies resulted in substantial valuation losses," said the central bank in a statement. About 9.9 billion francs was lost on its foreign currency positions, as the US dollar depreciated by 9.6 percent, the yen by 8.9 percent and the euro by 2.4 percent against the Swiss currency over the first six months of the year. Cutting rates was neither the solution, as the pair lost more than 400 pips ever since, with a fresh record low set yesterday at 0.7065. 2010 losses due intervention, had been estimated in 21 billion francs. Up to this point, and inverted Fibonacci points for a 0.6500 area as next bearish target. And latest FOMC outcome is surely not helping.

Selling on pullbacks, continues to be the best market option these days.

EUR/USD remains subdue

2011-08-08T12:27:13.000Z

Risk aversion eased, bond yield spreads tighten, yet Euro is unable to stand up: the common currency is at daily lows and aiming lower, still limited to the upside by the daily descendant trend line coming from the year high at 1.4940. The line is currently @ 1.4450 so it takes at least a daily close above it to see more gains in the cross. Despite we will be breaking a triangle to the upside, I won't be betting on too much gains in the cross these days. The common currency will likely remain weighted by the sovereign debt woes and the facilities the ECB has announced recently. Yet at least we may see the bearish pressure easing in the cross.

The base, around 1.3840, seems too far away to be tested in the short term.

Anyway! here is the short term outlook for the cross for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/08/08/

Risk dominates the weekly opening

2011-08-08T00:08:08.000Z

Risk aversion dominates the scenes in Asian opening, with stocks futures strongly down across the board and gold, the ultimate safe haven, reaching another record high at $ 1691/oz by the time of writing. Over the weekend, Standard & Poor's rating agency has downgraded the US government debt to AA+, something with no precedents. The agency, stated that “the downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics”.

Crossing the Atlantic, things are not looking good either: the ECB has decided to intervene markets to respond to the escalating debt crisis, while a joint statement today by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy supports the action, and reiterating their commitment to fully implement the decisions taken by the heads of state and government of the euro area and the EU institutions on July 21st 2011. This Sunday the ECB said it will “actively implement” its bond-purchase program, signaling it is ready to start buying Italian and Spanish securities to counter the sovereign debt crisis.

And if that is not enough, Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said a couple hours ago that he would make some comments after a telephone meeting between the finance leaders of the G7 major industrialized nations. As comment several times in webinars and reports, I do believe that only a coordinated intervention may halt Yen gains at this point.

Anyway, tension is in the air! Debts are huge and keep growing, investors trust gold and nothing else, and dollar is set to extend its slide particularly against European rivals: while CHF remains the strongest currency on the board, GBP may follow, and both are expected to overcome the EUR. As said above, JPY may continue gaining ground to fresh record highs against dollar, unless a G7 coordinated intervention takes place. And while AUD and CAD are now losing ground on risk sentiment, the slide may not last particularly when comes to CAD.

While the EUR/USD opened the week in a strong tone, beware of the 1.4260 support zone, as once below, the slide may extend towards 1.4170 on Monday. Tops in case of bullish runs, should be 1.4450, the daily descendant trend line coming from this year high.

The GBP/USD is stronger right now, holding above 1.6400; bearish momentum may increase if the pair loses 1.6360 area, yet not much lower than 1.6250 for today, while breaks above 1.6480 should point for stronger gains.

The USD/CHF, is unstoppable: bullish rallies should remain contained by 0.7670/0.7700 area, while fresh record lows below 0.7500 are at sight now.

The USD/JPY will remain bearish as long as below 78.50 yet needs to lose again 78.10 to resume its long term bearish trend, and retest the 76.20/40 price zone. Intervention rise has price now below the 50% retracement at mentioned 78.50.

Beware of major long term support in AUD/USD at 1.0200 area: if the slide continues, at least the first test of that level should trigger a strong bullish bounce. Pair needs to recover the far away 1.0550 price zone to erase current bearish tone.

Life, choices and SCAMS

2011-08-04T14:54:42.000Z

Life is a matter of choices. Whether the choices I had made in my life are considered wise or dumb by other persons, is something that hardly, HARDLY affects me. And giving explanations of what I do with my life is something that I’m not happy to do. However, I have been push to this extreme and for once I will do against my will.

I’m nobody. I’m just a woman that choose forex trading as a profession and that’s it. I also choose my family always above my profession. That’s why I work from home, and with Fxstreet.com. I have been trading for myself, and working with this amazing team of human beings for already 3 years, and I don’t regret one single second of this choice. I manage no personal extra business: I don’t teach but trough Fxstreet.com and Fxstreet.es webinars in both languages, Spanish and English. I don’t provide signals, but trough “the best pair to trade now” or “El mejor par para operar ahora” again in both languages, published 3 times a day in Fxstreet pages. I have chosen not to sell ANYTHING, to ANYONE 3 years ago, in regards of the forex market. True, I may be able to made heaps of money doing such things. But go figure! I’m not rich, and more, I DON’T CARE BEING SO. Money is an instrument, not the objective in life.

However, where is money involved, there is fraud and scams. It has come to my knowledge that someone is using my name to sell signals. Have no clue where it comes from, unfortunately, and will be eternally thank if you can help me with that. Claiming to be me, and using a FAKE EMAIL, with some typos in my last name (the mail that provides the signals is val_badnarik@hotmail.com ), they are selling forex stuff. Well, my friends THAT’S A SCAM.

I have two mail addresses: valbednarikATgmail.com and valeriaATfxstreet.com, and I can barely manage to keep them up to date. The rest is again A SCAM.

I’m outraged since I found out this, that’s why I’m making this public statement, that I would love for anyone to share EVERYWHERE. That’s my choice. And as said above, I never regret them.

Valeria Bednarik

We are saved

2011-07-25T12:02:48.000Z

Well, maybe not, but market players seem to be thinking so. The EU summit offer further facilities to Greece to overcome current situation and avoid default: more money, more years, less interest rates. The ECB has no choice now, but to keep feeding the beast to recover all the time, effort and cash already invested in this crisis. Anyway, now dollar has result to be unattractive again, and is strongly down across the board, while gold reaches fresh record highs near $ 1624/oz. Swiss Franc reached fresh all time highs against the greenback, USD/JPY trades barely above 78.00, and EUR and GBP, are trading in limited ranges this Monday, lacking direction and definition.

The EUR/USD is inside a triangle, bullish continuation pattern yet needs to overcome 1.4440 to confirm the upward continuation towards 1.4510 area. The bias remains bullish unless clear break below 1.4310: in that case, the pair may fall near 1.4250 in corrective mode before finding some support.

The GBP/USD has been trading in an horizontal channel since past Thursday, in between 1.6270 and 1.6340, with the upside still favored in the cross, towards 1.6430 area.

USD/CHF has set a fresh record low, and is still looking for fresh ones; here is the technical outlook for the pair:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/07/25/02/

Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great trading day!

Pure noise

2011-07-19T13:48:26.000Z

Risk is on, risk is off. Stocks slump, stocks recover. Dollar win, dollar loses. And in the mid time prices are not that much changed from past week levels, yet gold reached a fresh record high, and holds steady above $ 1600/oz, showing us investors are not willing to risk with currencies right now.

The EUR/USD tug of war seems not going to have a positive outcome for the European currency: early this morning, ECB member Ewald Nowotny suggested the bank may compromise and allow a temporary Greek default, nothing new, yet also nothing positive for the Euro. The spread differentials continue reaching record highs, now for Spain and Italy, and as I stated several times, I do really believe this is just the beginning.

Canada has just published the latest monetary policy decision, leaving rates unchanged at 1.0%, with USD/CAD accelerating lower. Strong support and bearish target lies around 0.9440/50 area, 4 years low set May this year.

Here is the link, for the technical perspective of major crosses:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/07/19/02/

Have a great trading day!