FXstreet.com: Technical: Forex Trading Strategies

New Zealand Weakness To Continue Before Short Reversal (Forex Hedging Strategy)

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:19:42 GMT

The beginning of October saw the Australian Dollar bullishly rebound from the kiwi’s buying spree. As the RBNZ aggressively slashed interest rates in an effort to pad its three consecutive quarters of negative growth, traders began selling the isle-nation’s currency. RBA officials too drastically cut overnight rates on fears that the slowing global economy would soon hit home. However, Australia has thus far been able to stay afloat as no quarterly period has been subject to negative growth.

A High Risk USDJPY Range Setup Could Play Out Quickly

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:55:20 GMT

For those that like to live on the edge, the technical draw of USDJPY’s range presents the market with a very clear setup for a short-term play. However, the risk is extremely high as the very attractive technical formation precedes one of the most market-moving indicators the dollar has to offer: non-farm payrolls (NFPs). Why Would USDJPY Hold Its Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 94.60 (Fib, Pivot) -Range Bottom: 90.85 (Trend, Fib, Pivot, SMA) USDJPY will be the epicenter for risk during

Greenback Lower Ahead of Payroll Data

trading@cmsfx.com (CMS Forex) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 01:43:30 GMT

Greenback Lower Ahead of Payroll Data The dollar declined against most major currencies Thursday after President-elect Barack Obama said the US risks sinking deeper into an economic crisis unless urgent actions are taken. The greenback traded lower in thin trading ahead of Friday’s US payroll report expected to show the economy lost more than half a million jobs in December for the second consecutive month. Sterling rose to a 3-week high after the Bank of England cut its key interest rate less

All eyes on Non-Farm Payrolls.

info@forexamericas.com (ForexAmericas) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:53:25 GMT

Market View Today's US markets closed mixed on the back of better than expected jobless claims. The data came in at 467k from a forecast of 545k, surprising the market. This morning President elect Barack Obama spoke about his economic stimulus plans after he takes office. Overnight the BOE kept the official bank rate at 1.50%, which was what the street was expecting. All eyes remain on tomorrow's NFP numbers from the US and the manufacturing data from the UK. EUR/USD: We are looking at

FX Technical Strategies

lea@fxuniversity.org (FXUniversity) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:04:01 GMT

EUR /USD : Long term : bearish Medium term : neutral Short term : bullish Currently @ 1.3697. Be prepared for more upside as long as 1.3530 hold ( 50 % retrasement of the last leg up). First level on the upside to be addressed : 1.3840 with 1. 4370 to follow. Break above will renew medium term bull trend with the projection back upto 1.4318. For the bears to take over downside of the 1.3550 will have to be removed to attack 1.3230 first.

EURUSD: Rejection Candle Triggers Recovery

m.isah@fxtechstrategy.com (FXTechstrategy) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 15:03:17 GMT

HIGHLIGHTS: EURUSD: Rejection Candle Triggers Recovery -EUR halted its recent declines started at the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18’08 Wednesday pushing to the upside to close higher at 1.3615... GBPUSD: Corrective Recovery Eyes Further Higher Prices - GBP continues to gain further upside momentum closing higher for a third day in a row since rising off the 1.4378 low on Jan’02’09… EURUSD: Rejection Candle Triggers Recovery. EURUSD : EUR halted its recent declines started at the 1.4719 level, its

Focus on Central Banks

info@swissetrade.com (Swiss e Trade AG) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:06:42 GMT

We already saw it towards the end of last year: The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee pronounced it will do everything to restart the economy. The word "everything" provoked short-term weakness in the USD, illustrating fears of overheating the money printing press. The FOMC announced that it will seriously reflate the economy to fend off the danger of deflation. Again, the USD, after having had a good start in the new year, is reacting weaker. We doubt that the market will concentrate on this

The Dire ADP employment reports hurts the USD

info@saxobank.com (Saxo Bank) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 07:32:09 GMT

At the same time, Obama went on CNBC and promised to spend $1.3T - more than the previous talked about $775B on stimulus. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION US Challenger Layoffs at +166.3k (+274.5% m/m) US ADP employment -693k vs -495k expected AU Nov Trade balance AUD 1.45b vs 2.0b expected AU Nov Building approvals -12.8% m/m vs -1.0% expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Events Today: CH CPI (Dec) (0645) GE Trade/Current Acct balance (Nov)(0700) EU Consumer/Business Confidence Index

Weekly Forex Focus

sales@tradingcentral.com (Trading Central) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 06:13:11 GMT

Please find enclosed today's WEEKLY FOREX FOCUS EUR/USD - USD/JPY GBP/USD - USD/CHF USD/CAD - AUD/USD EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF EUR/GBP - DOLLAR INDEX

NZDUSD Presents An Attractive Range Before Key Dollar Event Risk

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 05:44:28 GMT

Direction and volatility are still highly uncertain for the broader currency market. However, in falling in line with momentum and fundamental, our proposed NZDUSD setup benefits from two of three possible scenarios. Why Would NZDUSD Hold a Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 0.6085 (Triple Top, Fib, SMA) -Range Bottom: 0.5650 (Pivot, Fib) Risk appetite is the primary, fundamental driver at the beginning of this New Year; and NZDUSD has a direct correlation to this sweeping trend. As the New

Greenback Falls on Dismal Job Losses

trading@cmsfx.com (CMS Forex) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:22:37 GMT

Greenback Falls on Dismal Job Losses The dollar extended its losses Wednesday following gloomy ADP data suggesting December was the worst month in job losses since records began in 2001. The Canadian and Australian dollars declined as commodities fell and oil prices dropped the most in seven years. Sterling rose against the euro on decelerating eurozone producer-price inflation increasing speculation for a further European Central Bank interest-rate cut. The EUR/USD rose today as US ADP data

ADP Report sets the mood.

info@forexamericas.com (ForexAmericas) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 23:29:40 GMT

Market View The mood in today’s US markets was set by the ADP jobs report which came in at -693k from a -450k forecast. This has been the talk of the trading floors for most of the day. Now all eyes are on Fridays Non-Farm report for an actual number, which is expected to surprise the market once again. Energy stocks also fell as the price of crude tumbled $5.73 to 42.85 (@ close) after crude inventories revealed an increase to 6.70m barrels. All the major indices finished the day in the red;

The Euro Becomes a Teen

info@swissetrade.com (Swiss e Trade AG) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:15:37 GMT

Parents know what they are talking about when their kids are entering their teens, with all the aspects of that difficult age when puberty hits. The euro is entering this phase now, one might say, soon reaching puberty. Being pampered so far by caring European parents, who most probably have no more say in the face of ongoing financial and economic woes, the euro must soon prove that it really is the strong offspring of a sound environment. That will be the acid test Eurosceptis long talked

EURUSD: Corrective Decline Sees Respite At The 1.3298 Level

m.isah@fxtechstrategy.com (FXTechstrategy) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:12:07 GMT

HIGHLIGHTS: EURUSD: Corrective Decline Sees Respite At The 1.3298 Level -A follow-through to the downside on its recent decline started at 1.4719(Dec 18’08) took a breather Tuesday halting at the 1.3298 level, its Dec 11’08 high/former range top to close the session at 1.3505... GBPUSD: Maintains Its Consolidation To Corrective Mode -The pair remains biased to the downside in the short, medium and long terms suggesting that any strength seen is corrective and should fade turning GBP lower

The greenback's rally stalls after gloomy FOMC minutes, weak data

info@saxobank.com (Saxo Bank) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 07:33:55 GMT

The FOMC Minutes were quite bleak. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION US NOV Pending Home Sales at -4.0% m/m vs -1.0% expected US NOV Factory Orders at -4.6% vs. -2.3% expected US DEC ISM Non-Manuf Index at 40.6 vs. 36.5 expected NZ Trade Balance (Nov) –NZD520 mln vs revised –NZD996 mln prior AUST DEC HIA New Home Sales -1.1% m/m vs 4.5% prior AUST NOV Retail sales +0.4% m/m S/ADJ vs -0.3% expected AUST NOV Retail Sales +0.1 PCT m/m in trend terms THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Events

A Clear Channel And Immunity To Risk Trends Stabilizes AUDCAD Range

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 06:42:02 GMT

A rebound in risk appetite has thrown many, former ranges into disarray. However, the AUDCAD congestion we have pointed out will both benefit from a sustained rise in yield demand and even a tumble back into risk aversion. Why Would AUDCAD Hold a Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 0.8650 (Range, Trend) -Range Bottom: 0.8400 (Pivot, Fib) Risk appetite has risen since the turn of the year; but its permanence is questionable. However, whether or not the market is able to hold back the dam on

Greenback Mixed on Gloomy US Data

trading@cmsfx.com (CMS Forex) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 01:20:08 GMT

Greenback Mixed on Gloomy US Data The dollar gained against the euro and yen but surrendered part of its overnight gains after another dose of weak US economic data. Federal Reserve officials saw “substantial” risks to the US economy, the FOMC minutes released Tuesday showed. Sterling gained against the euro for a second day on speculation the UK economy will rebound faster than the eurozone economy. The Canadian dollar appreciated to the strongest level in two months versus the greenback as

USD/JPY

lea@fxuniversity.org (FXUniversity) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:27:43 GMT

USD/JPY : Long-term: bearish Medium -term : neutral Short-term : bullish Strategy : we have booked 300 pips from 91 ( Bollinger Band 20 MA ) . What to look for from here : would continue buying on dips up to 95.70 first with 97 to follow. Only back below 90.90 would bring bears back into picture with the projected target down to 88.25 ( 61.8 % fib expansion) . For more technical analysis go to www.fxuniversity.org.

Bullish dollar.

info@forexamericas.com (ForexAmericas) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:40:55 GMT

Market View Today's equity markets finished the day higher with the Dow Jones closing back above 9,015.20, a gain of .69 percent. The Nasdaq close up 1.50 percent. The markets were able to retain its gains even after the Fed Minutes indicated the December cut was due to the continuing bad economic data. Most of this confidence comes from the proposed Stimulus package by President elect Barak Obama. The market has also noticed a shift of money from US Treasuries into corporate bonds and even

Dollar Regaining its Strength

info@swissetrade.com (Swiss e Trade AG) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:48:48 GMT

A good start into 2009 for equity markets helped the dollar to regain its strength, especially against the Euro yesterday. This may look like a continuation of the uptrend for the USD which began 5 months ago - but we are not that far yet. A downside break of the $1.28 level of the euro is needed to confirm such a development. Two fundamental expectations could lead to that. First there is the outlook for a shrinking interest rate differential in the euro, which is still substantial. The second

EURGBP

info@chart-workshop.de (Chart-Workshop) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:16:16 GMT

Happy New Year and best wishes for 2009! Lets hope it will be a prosperous one. EURGBP making huge progress over the final weeks of 2008, and it was only a matter of time before a correction that was well overdue would begin to take place. Right now the most viable target is the 0.9019 old resistance line which now becomes support and the potential near term target. Below that is the 10 week simple moving average that should also provide good support, at least first off. Technically there is a

Obama Package in focus

info@saxobank.com (Saxo Bank) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 07:47:35 GMT

They are talking about $775B of spending primarily through infrastructure and tax reliefs. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION US Nov Construction Spending -0.6% m/m vs -1.3% expected US Domestic vehicle sales 10.3 mln units vs 7.5 mln expected UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence 47 vs revised 51 prior AU AIG Services Index 39.3 vs 37.8 prior THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Events Today: UK Nationwide House Price Index (0700) EU Services PMI (0900) UK Services PMI (0930) EU Flash CPI (1000)

AUDNZD Looks To Avoid A Swell In Risk Tides To Support Range

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 05:54:54 GMT

The markets are filling out after the year-end lull; and the impact on volatility and price action has been clear. However, as traders return so do the market’s major trends. From a fundamental and technical perspective, AUDNZD has a natural hedge on both fronts. Why Would AUDNZD Hold a Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 1.2225 (Range, Trend) -Range Bottom: 1.1625 (Pivot, Fib ) Liquidity has surged at the start of this first full week of the new year. However, a new year does not mean a new

Yen Falls as Risk Aversion Decreases

trading@cmsfx.com (CMS Forex) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:58:42 GMT

Yen Falls as Risk Aversion Decreases The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Monday as President-elect Barack Obama is seeking a largerthan- expected 300 billion in tax cuts and US construction spending dropped less than expected. The yen fell after breaking important technical levels despite lower US stocks. The recent narrowing of credit spreads and announced large US stimulus limit the downside for the economy and reduce investors’ risk aversion. The euro, yen and Swiss franc were the

FX Options trade alert

sales@tradingcentral.com (Trading Central) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:00:18 GMT

Last week, the U.S. Dollar was firm especially against the euro and the Swiss franc. However, it slid against the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar as rising commodities prices supported these currencies. On a technical point of view, the USD/EUR and the USD/JPY have broken above their resistances. Indeed, the USD/JPY is pushing above a key declining trend line which was in place since September 2008 and the USD/EUR has broken above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 72.30 (Fibonacci

EUR / USD on Support Level after Drop

info@swissetrade.com (Swiss e Trade AG) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 10:49:50 GMT

2008 ended with low volatility and a stabilizing USD, an exceptional situation for that time of the year when the USD usually suffers a seasonal bout of weakness. Considering the euro’s strength against other currencies with its sizeable interest rate differential, one might wonder when the dollar will eventually give in, like the British pound has, now almost at parity versus the euro. The EUR / USD pair is now trading on good support levels after a sudden drop this European morning, with the

The Beast

info@alaron.com (Alaron) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 09:55:10 GMT

EURUSD: Declines Activated At The 1.4719 Level Set To Continue

m.isah@fxtechstrategy.com (FXTechstrategy) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 09:25:49 GMT

EURUSD: Declines Activated At The 1.4719 Level Set To Continue - EUR ended the week on the downside at 1.3840 following its test and failure at the 1.4363 level forming a shooting star candle pattern( a top reversal signal) the past week … GBPUSD: GBP Continues Its Weakness Into 2009,Opens The Year Lower - Following the pair’s collapse at the 1.5754 level and its subsequent declines forming a shooting star-like candle pattern printed on Dec 17’08,two weeks of further downside losses has seen

How Will A Rebound In Liquidity Influence EURUSD On The Edge Of Its Range?

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 06:27:24 GMT

Many of the majors are nestling right up to major technical levels at the end of a very illiquid week. This is a risky set of circumstances for low-volatility, range trading; but a reduced EURUSD position could prove worthwhile. Why Would EURUSD Hold A Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 1.4150 (Pivot, Fib) -Range Bottom: 1.3825 (Pivot, Fibs) It is a risky proposition to formulate a range trade in any major that is so close to a breakout just before the end of an extremely illiquid week.

A Rebound In Liquidity May Put Risk And Carry Trade Interests Back On Pace

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 06:16:23 GMT

The new year has begun; and the impending rebound in liquidity promises to redefine direction for risk sentiment and its dependable barometer – the carry trade. Now, the market is left to decide whether the rebound in activity will mean a revival of the sweeping deleveraging trend through October or a rebound in risk appetite - and there are fundamental and technical arguments on both sides of the market. A Rebound In Liquidity May Put Risk And Carry Trade Interests Back On Pace Employment And

EURUSD dips keep turning into bounces so far

info@saxobank.com (Saxo Bank) — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 11:23:53 GMT

More thin liquidity until next week with today's isolated Friday trapped between holiday and the weekend. HEADLINES Australia AIG Dec. Performance of Manufacturing out at 33.7 vs. 32.7 in Nov. China Dec. CLSA Manufacturing PMI out at 41.2 vs. 40.9 in Nov. Sweden Dec. PMI out at 32.7 vs. 32.1 expected Germany Final Dec. Manufacturing PMI out at 32.7 vs. 32.1 expected and 33.1 previously EuroZone Final Dec. Manufacturing PMI out at 32.7 vs. 33.5 expected and 33.5 previously UK Dec. PMI out at

Weekly Forex Focus

sales@tradingcentral.com (Trading Central) — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 05:59:42 GMT

Please find enclosed today's WEEKLY FOREX FOCUS EUR/USD - USD/JPY GBP/USD - USD/CHF USD/CAD - AUD/USD EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF EUR/GBP - DOLLAR INDEX

A USDCAD Range That Looks Beyond The Period Of Low Liquidity

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 05:52:25 GMT

Over the final days of this week, extremely illiquid markets could lead to extremely high or low levels of volatility for the currency market. However, with strong technicals, a clear bias and a sound strategy, a USDCAD range trade could take advantage of a good opportunity. Why Would USDCAD Hold A Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 1.2375 (Pivot, Fib) -Range Bottom: 1.2075 (Trend, Fibs) Event risk from the dollar side of USDCAD will be considerable after the weekend; but for the remainder of

Dollar and Yen Gained in 2008 as Risk Aversion Spiked

trading@cmsfx.com (CMS Forex) — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 23:59:08 GMT

Dollar and Yen Gained in 2008 as Risk Aversion Spiked The dollar gained against most major currencies in the New Year Eve’s thin trading. US equity markets rose for a second day, trimming losses at the end of the markets’ worst year since the Great Depression. US initial jobless claims declined more than expected, while continuing jobless claims reached a 26-year high. The greenback was headed for yearly gains against most key currencies as the worst financial crisis in memories led investors

The New Year is soon upon us - what will it bring for currencies?

info@saxobank.com (Saxo Bank) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 07:57:18 GMT

A study of recent years shows that the last trading day of the old year and especially the first trading day of the new one are often volatile. HEADLINES US Oct. S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 House Price Index fell -18.04% vs. -17.9% expected US Dec. Chicago PMI out at 34.1 vs. 33.0 expected US Dec. Consumer Confidence out at record low of 38.0 vs. 45.5 expected US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -49 vs. -48 the previous week Australia Nov. Private Credit Growth rose 8.2% YoY vs. 8.5%

Kiwi Selling May Rest as Dollar Hits Support (Forex Hedging Strategy)

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:08:57 GMT

New Zealand Dollar weakness has been of notorious mention since the RBNZ became yet another participant in the global trend towards rate slashing policies. In fact, the pair has plummeted 29.47% from its high in March. For the foreseeable future such a trend does not seem as though it will dwindle, especially on the backs of the Reserve Bank. With Q3 growth coming in negatively for the third consecutive period, Bollard and his board members may be forced to dwindle the substantial 475bp yield

A Long-Term Trend And Level Fundamentals Build USDJPY Range

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:06:49 GMT

There is considerable volatility across the market, but those pairs that were the most active in past months now seem to hold the greatest stability. Point-in-case, USDJPY’s congestion has fit into a broad technical trend; and fundamental shifts underlying the market may keep the pair in a manageable range through the near future. Why Would USDJPY Hold A Range Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 91.00 (Trend, SMA, Pivot, Fib) -Range Bottom: 87.15 (Swing Low, Pivot) Risk sentiment has been side-lined

Greenback Mostly Lower in Thin Trading

trading@cmsfx.com (CMS Forex) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:22:13 GMT

Greenback Mostly Lower in Thin Trading The dollar was mostly lower in thin pre-holiday trading Tuesday. US consumer confidence dropped to a record low and home prices fell more than expected. The yen rose despite higher US stock prices. The GBP/USD traded as low as 1.4389, the lowest level since early 2002, following yesterday’s important break of the 1.45 support. The EUR/GBP rose for the sixth day, trading above 0.98 for the first time ever. The Australian and Canadian dollars traded

JPY crosses also on roller coaster ride as end of year draws near

info@saxobank.com (Saxo Bank) — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 07:38:26 GMT

End of month/year fixing effects will continue through tomorrow. Latest US house price data on tap together with Consumer Confidence. THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Events Today: Sweden Nov. Trade Balance (0830) Sweden Nov. Household Lending and Retail Sales (0830) Switzerland Nov. UBS Consumption Indicator (0900) Germany Dec. CPI (no time given) US Oct. S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (1400) US Dec. Chicago PMI (1445) US Dec. Consumer Confidence (1500) US Weekly Consumer Confidence

Choppy Markets Cloud A Potentially Strong GBPUSD Range

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 05:55:32 GMT

Fundamental forecasts and technical price patterns are rarely clean and clear for any market. For recent GBPUSD congestion, this reality leaves the pair on the edge of a potentially lucrative range setup or major breakdown. Why Would GBPUSD Hold a Range? Levels to Watch: -Range Top: 1.5725 (Fib, Swing High) -Range Bottom: 1.4360 (Trend, Fib, SMA) The markets are still very thin; and developing new, major trends will be exceptionally difficult without a deep market to feed momentum and keep