FXstreet.com: Fundamental

True Religion falls apart at the seams after earnings

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:55:19 GMT

TRLG – True Religion Apparel, Inc. – Disappointing fourth-quarter earnings and weaker-than-expected 2012 guidance from high-end apparel maker, True Religion, saw shares down as much as 25.0% this morning to $27.57. The sharp pullback in the price of the underlying is a true kick in the pants for some traders holding bullish options, as the value of their positions tumbled overnight. One hard-hit strategy, a bull call spread initiated at $1.50 per contract yesterday afternoon, is practically

The Moderate Economic Recovery is Still Underway

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:32:00 GMT

U.S. Review The Moderate Economic Recovery is Still Underway Consumer credit surged by $19.3 billion in December, the second consecutive solid monthly increase reflecting growth in credit cards, student loans and car loans. Weekly first-time jobless claims fell by 15k to 358k and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed the number of job openings in December rose 2.5 percent. Data on international trade show the nominal U.S. trade deficit widened 3.7 percent to $48.8 billion in

Markets turn more confident about EMU

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 16:28:57 GMT

The ECB helps to calm down financial tensions Equities, euro, up Loud talks about the Greek debt The OAT-Bund spread is below 100bp. The equity market index is driven by cyclicals (automotive and commodity stocks) and up nearly 8% since the start of the year. The euro is stronger and volatility and premiums attached to Italian and Spanish debt have abated... Financial markets want to believe that it is the beginning of the end for the euro zone crisis. One of the conditions for exiting the

The Plan for the Weekend

chepurko-a@fxclub.com (Forex Club) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 15:39:40 GMT

Headlines Greek debt swap virtually done, now awaits approval by parliament on Sunday European leaders held back Greek aid in order to first receive Sunday’s vote, will meet on Wednesday Fitch says that a disorderly Greek default is still possible EU/Athens standoff increases possibility for Greek default, but parliament votes look to be enough to avoid it Summary In general, Friday is a day that markets would rather offload risk. European officials have held back aid for Greece until the

Canadian merchandise trade surplus hit three-year high in December

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

OPINION: After a poor start to the quarter, Canadian exporters bounced back in style. And it wasn’t about energy. In December, the non-energy trade balance improved by roughly one billion dollars, twice as much as the improvement in the energy trade balance. Non-energy exports are now back to pre-recession levels. Clearly, the ramp up in the US economy is significantly helping Canadian exporters overcome the headwinds provided by the strong currency. With December's hot numbers, trade is now

Greece, China and Australia all contribute to Risk Aversion in the FX Market

contact@traderscorner-online.com (Traders Corner) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 15:32:03 GMT

The risk appetite experienced yesterday has well and truly disappeared today as the Greece saga continues. Only 24 hours ago traders were buying up risk associated currencies including the Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollar on news that Greece’s coalition government had agreed on the required austerity measures demanded by the EU and IMF in order to receive their next tranche of financial aid. The Euro, Aussie and Kiwi all set fresh 2012 highs against the dollar yesterday, but these gains

US: Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected in December

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

The trade deficit widened more than expected in December as imports rose three times as much as exports. Trade should have little impact on Q4 GDP revisions, but will likely be a drag on first quarter growth. Consumer Goods Weigh on Exports The trade deficit widened to $48.8 billion in September from $47.1 billion in November and was wider than the $48.5 billion consensus forecast. Exports of goods rose by $936 million, or 0.6 percent. Consumer goods fell $1.0 billion, led by an $839 million

Papademos gets Greek Cabinet approval on bailout plan - source

forex@fxstreet.com (FXstreet.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:03:07 GMT

Lucas Papademos, Greece Prime Minister, has gotten the Cabinet okay on the second rescue package and to submit the new regulation for new budget measures on the back of the Troika demands according to Bloomberg report on Greek Official. After a week that has been dominated by news from Greece, where the politicians held interminable talks on a new package of austerity measures required by the Troika in exchange for releasing the second bailout. Even though the party leaders finally managed to

Still waiting for Greece

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:53:32 GMT

Market Movers ahead We are still waiting for a solution to the Greek debt woes, with the Greek parliament due to vote on key elements of the additional austerity measures – possibly as soon as Sunday. In the US, retail sales could surprise the markets on the upside and CPI numbers are set to increase at a modest pace. Eurozone Q4 data should confirm our outlook for a sharp drop in production in the final quarter of last year. China’s vice president will start his official visit to the US

Daily Video Briefing

info@fxpro.com (FxPro) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:49:08 GMT

We do not understand how the stock markets can be rallying wildly

ber@rts0forex.com (Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc.) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:04:03 GMT

Outlook: We have a number of confusing and seemingly conflicting items on the table today. One of them is the alternative universes of the stock and bond markets lately. We simply do not understand how the stock markets can be rallying wildly, until today, while bonds were scorned—until today. The Greek situation alone should have kept risk aversion flight-to-safety on an even keel, if not rising. The deduction we should probably draw is that the equity gang marches to its own drummer and

BoJ Expected to Reject More Easing Following Favorable Global Economy

admin@tradervox.com (Tradervox.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:33:13 GMT

The Bank of Japan is expected to refuse any additional monetary easing expected next week since there are signs of stronger global economy. Moreover, the reconstruction efforts from last March’s earthquake have boosted the country’s economy. The Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa together with his board is expected to uphold the overnight lending rate between zero percent and 0.1 percent on Valentine’s Day. According to some analysts, the 55 trillion yen asset-purchase proposed will

AUD Falls as Growth Forecasts are Slashed

admin@tradervox.com (Tradervox.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:29:09 GMT

The Australian Dollar pared from its six month high after the RBA lowered its growth forecasts and inflation for the year. The forecast is expected to urge policy makers to review the interest rates downwards. The Australian Dollar weakened against its major peers after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that the economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2012 down from the previous estimate of 4%. The drop came amidst a lot of speculation about the Greece debt crisis. Lawmakers in Greece are

Greek deal fails to lift Euro

admin@tradervox.com (Tradervox.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:25:45 GMT

Euro traded in red since the open at 1.3290 during the Asian session and during the early European session. The drop continued after the disappointed trade balance data from China. It came at -0.5% against the expected 4.6%. The low for the day is 1.3238. It is currently trading at 1.3250, down about quarter a percentage. The support may be seen at 1.3230 and at 1.3200 levels. The resistance may be seen at 1.3280 and 1.3300. The Euro slide indicates that the market has already factored in the

Scarcity of Top-Tier Reports Indicates Another Quiet Day Ahead

admin@tradervox.com (Tradervox.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:21:02 GMT

The story of the euro yesterday was the same story we heard two days ago. For a second consecutive day we were unable to decode a general direction for the euro amid a very risk adverse environment. This was not a case of theoretical range trading. In range trading we usually see the market trying to pick one direction only to revert to the other direction but rather what we saw yesterday was a classic case of no movement at all.EUR/USD virtually traded between a tight range of 1.3320 and

EUR to lose Faith?

marketpulsefx@oanda.com (OANDA Corporation) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:01:10 GMT

Buy the rumor sell the fact, there was none of that. There was no euphoria when the austerity deal was finally struck on the Greek side. Global equities did happen to receive a small bid, fixed income yield remained rather flat, but that was it, no ticker tape parade. One certainly gets the feeling that no one believes in it, and that is the reason why the European finance ministers have dismissed the +EUR3.3b Greek budget cuts as incomplete. They are demanding another +EUR325m of cuts and

Today's Live Show: The EUR to Remain in the Spotlight Next Week

trader@allthingsforex.com (AllThingsForex) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:07:17 GMT

Forex traders, join the daily All Things Forex broadcast- a live one hour program covering Forex and major economic events, trend developments,research, analysis, ideas, education, live traders forum, interviews with some of the most respected names in the trading world, and much more.. In the broadcast today: The EUR to Remain in the Spotlight Next Week. With the Greek bailout funding held back, we continue to focus on the EUR and explain why the single currency will keep its center stage

China's Surplus Rises, but Only Because of a Fall in Imports

(FXTimes) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:55:14 GMT

China’s trade balance beat expectations posting a very strong $27.3 billion surplus for January. That thoroughly beat expectations of a $10.8 billion figure. We previewed the release here . The surprise reading was led by a sharp drop in imports which fell 15.3% on the year, while exports were down 0.5% on the year. The decline in exports was not as bad as forecast, but the retrenchment by Chinese imports means that households and businesses are cutting back on their spending. From Bloomberg:

Preview: China's Trade Balance A Gauge for Global Demand

(FXTimes) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:47:52 GMT

Release: China Trade Balance (Jan) Consensus Forecast: $10.1B Previous: $16.5 Date/Time: 02/09/12 8:30PM ET (01:30 GMT, 02/10) China’s Trade Balance Still A Key Gauge for Global Trade As we head towards the end of the week we continue to see general risk sentiment positive as our most basic measure of sentiment – the S&P 500 futures – continues to push towards fresh highs multi-month highs. The rally in the S&P 500 over the last month and a half has been based on the stabilization in

France: Fall in industrial output

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:11:07 GMT

Industrial output fell by 1.4% in December. The decline is broad based to all industries. For the first time since December 2009, industrial production is down compare to one year ago, by 1.3%. And the deterioration in business surveys argues in favour of more declines to come. For the whole fourth quarter of 2011, industrial production registers a 0.8% fall. A GDP contraction is not certain, only the most likely outcome. A limited decline of 0.1% is expected.

Euro Zone dismisses Greek budget deal under austerity passed

sales@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 11:22:35 GMT

Economic Data - (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Feb 6th (RUB): 6.70T v 6.75T prior - (FI) Finland Dec Industrial Production M/M: +2.8% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: +2.0% v -4.0%e - (DE) Germany Jan Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e - (DE) Germany Jan Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e - (FR) France Dec Current Account: -€3.0B v -€2.1B prior - (FR) France Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -0.6%e - (FR) France Dec

London Update: Spain sets an example for Greece

info@forex.com (FOREX.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:26:08 GMT

London Update Spain sets an example for Greece The London session has opened to the news that the Eurogroup finance ministers have rejected the EUR 3.3 bn of budget cuts presented to them by the Greek fin min yesterday. The rest of the currency bloc is playing hard ball with Greece: its wants EUR 300mn more cuts, a wide-ranging economic reform package and a commitment from all political parties that the measures will be implemented after general elections due in April, before signing off on

U.K. inflation surges beyond expectations, the sentiment is still mixed over Greece

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:29:02 GMT

The sentiment remained mixed in the market as this week comes to an end, where after finance ministers announced that Greece will reach a final agreement next week, markets reversed to the downside as Greek officials disappointed investors more than once, where they failed to meet any deadline so far and postponed debt-talks several times, which added stress and tension to the markets, which are still waiting for more details over the Greek situation. The European common currency declined

Who the Heck is Ben Broadbent?

info@babypips.com (BabyPips.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:06:41 GMT

Who is this mysterious former Goldman Sachs employee who has come to replace our beloved long-time hawk Andrew Sentance? Pipsters, say goodbye to Andrew Sentance, and hello to Ben Broadbent! What are Ben Broadbent's credentials? Ben Broadbent, the newest addition to my list of favorite Bens which includes Ben Bernanke, Ben Franklin, and Ben Stiller (of course!), graduated with first-class honors from Cambridge University and holds a PhD from Harvard. Currently, he works as a senior European

CEE currencies in wait-and-see mode

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:58:47 GMT

Headlines: CEE currencies in wait-and-see mode IMF warns that it may lower growth forecast for Hungary The Central European currencies were trading within a narrow range yesterday. First, good news about a possible agreement in Greece cheered markets, but this reversed quickly in the afternoon after the agreement looked to be a bit further away on new demand from the EU. The final deadline for the negotiations its the redemption of a large Greek bond stock on March 20, which could potentially

Daily Forex Fundamental Overview

info@dukascopy.com (Dukascopy Swiss FX Group) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:23:18 GMT

Fundamental Analysis EUR “Europe may soon have defused the Greek issue for a while” - Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank Greece leaders Thursday agreed a deal on reforms and austerity measures in return for a 130 billion euro bailout from international lenders which will help the country to avoid a messy default. “The financial survival of the country in the coming years depends on the new program ... It is a time of responsibility for everyone,” said Finance Minister

Russia Behind Bulgarian Anti-Fracking Protests?

admin@oilprice.com (OilPrice.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:35:23 GMT

Pity the poor Eastern Europeans. Fifty years under the domination of their massive Soviet eastern neighbor then the collapse of Communism there two decades ago offered undreamed of opportunities to join both the European Union and NATO. But they still remain dependent on the Russian Federation for the majority of their oil and gas needs, and the new capitalists in Moscow do not hesitate to charge the highest prices possible. According a number of East European nations, particularly Poland and

Tentative signs of Greek accord only the first steps

enquiries@worldfirst.com (World First UK Ltd) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:36:23 GMT

Do we have an agreement in Greece? Noises yesterday suggested so although no clear announcement has been made. The rumours did cause a slight rally in risky assets yesterday but with all the macroeconomic data flying round from the UK, Bank of England and Mario Draghi, yesterday’s session was a very choppy one. The story was broken by the FT Athens correspondent that a deal between Greek politicians had been reached, however, it has not signed, ratified or confirmed in any way, shape or form.

"No disbursement without implementation"

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:27:53 GMT

Euro area finance ministers set three conditions At the Eurogroup meeting last night the euro area finance ministers set three conditions that need to be fulfilled before the ministers will approve the second rescue package to Greece: 1) Parliament approval of policy package (vote set for Sunday) 2) Additional EUR325m in structural reduction of deficit to be detailed before next Wednesday 3) That the political leaders of the coalition parties sign up to the implementation of the programme. The

U.S.: No relief at the pump in 2012?

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

U.S. Watch The U.S. Department of Energy released its latest Energy Outlook this week. The report provided forecasts for the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of $100.40/Bbl in 2012 and stated retail prices for gasoline will reach a seasonal peak of $3.65 per gallon in Q2. This price of gasoline is 7% lower than prices observed for the same period last year. However certain trends suggest that there is a risk that gasoline prices will surge above $4.00 per barrel in 2012. In

Agreement at last!

info@econometer.org (Econometer.org) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:16:15 GMT

Greek politicians finally agreed on further austerity cuts totalling EUR 3.3 billion in order to secure a second bailout package. European official discussions now centre on the details of the bail out package, targeting a cut in Greece’s debt to GDP ratio to 120%. However, the fact European Finance Ministers have withheld more funds for Greece until the austerity measures begin to be implemented suggests further uncertainty on the horizon. A Greek parliamentary vote set to begin this weekend

EUR/USD: The dollar advanced versus most of its major counterparts

info@acfx.com (ACFX) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:10:53 GMT

Currencies EUR/USD The dollar advanced versus most of its major counterparts as Asian stocks fell and European finance ministers withheld an aid package for Greece. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.3255 per euro as of 6:30 a.m. in London AUDUSD Australia’s dollar fell from near a six-month high after the Reserve Bank lowered its forecasts for growth and inflation this year, boosting scope for policy makers to reduce interest rates. Australia’s dollar slid 0.7 percent to $1.0714 at 4:13 p.m.

China: Signs of slower import growth in distorted trade data

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:05:11 GMT

China’s export and import growth slowed markedly in January largely reflecting the seasonal distortions from an early Chinese New Year Holiday this year. While we should be careful to draw conclusions on the back of the January numbers, China’s export growth appears to be improving, while there are signs of weakness in imports. In our view we are poised to see a temporary weakness in China’s imports in the coming months driven mainly by weaker import of commodities. China’s import of

Other: Bank of England keeps printing press on

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:58:47 GMT

US: Jobless claims resume downward trend In the week ending the 4th of February, US initial jobless claims dropped unexpectedly, from an upwardly revised 373 000 to 358 000, while a slight increase was expected. The claims are now again at the lowest level in four weeks. The less volatile four-week moving average dropped lower too, from 377 250 to 366 250. There were no special factors in the data, the Labour Department added. Continuing claims, which are reported with an extra week lag,

Australia's dollar fell from near a six-month high

vtsaprounis@zulutrade.com (ZuluTrade) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:01:07 GMT

Good Morning, - Asian stocks fell the most in eight weeks and South Korea's won weakened as earnings in the region disappointed investors and European leaders held back a rescue package for Greece. The Australian dollar declined and wheat fell for a fourth day. - Greek FinMin Evangelos said that unfortunate that the Eurogroup did not take a decision on the second bailout loan. Worries there were objections from many EMU members that Greece did not fully conclude the fiscal consolidation

EUR/USD tumbled to the 1.3235 area around noon

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:55:10 GMT

On Thursday, the Greek debt talks and the ECB meeting were the drivers for EUR/USD trading. Greece politicians reached a deal on a second rescue package while the ECB as expected left its policy unchanged. However, the euro failed to profit as the Greek political agreement was not rubber-stamped by Eurogroup Finance Ministers. Yesterday, the EUR/USD cross rate moved up an down roughly between 1.3235 and 1.3325. Greece was still the dominant force behind the price action. The stop-andgo (or

The Bund now tests first important support

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:49:42 GMT

Markets: fixed income On Thursday, global core bonds continued to correct lower in a move that started after the stronger-than-expected US payrolls last Friday. The correction develops at a quite subdued pace and is modest in scope. Technically, the Bund now tests first important support, but that isn’t yet the case for the US Note future (see graphs next page). The trigger yesterday was the rumour on an agreement between the Troika and the Greek political parties, later on confirmed by Mr.

Daily Majors Fundamental: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

info@fxempire.com (FXEmpire.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:13:42 GMT

EUR/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis Economic Events: (GMT) 07:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) -0.4% -0.4% The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR 08:15 CHF CPI (MoM) -0.3% -0.2% The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and

Global Economic Outlook

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:23:53 GMT

The global economy is slowing down. Global growth will only rebound in the second half of 2012, led by the resurgence of emerging economies. Risks to the global outlook are still strongly tilted to the downside, as the European sovereign, financial and fiscal crisis continues. This crisis has pushed Europe into recession. Successive EU summits since October and ECB’s actions have just bought some time, but major advances have yet to come. Emerging economies are heading for a soft landing,

Daily Crosses Fundamental: EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD

info@fxempire.com (FXEmpire.com) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:42:06 GMT

EUR/CHF Forecast Fundamental Analysis Economic Events: (GMT) 07:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) -0.4% -0.4% The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR 08:15 CHF CPI (MoM) -0.3% -0.2% The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and