FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Reports on Economic Indicators

US: employment, not as bad as it looks

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:50:31 GMT

The October labour market report embedded both positive and negative news. The unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% but the decline in non-farm payrolls slowed to -190K. With a net revision of +91K, the overall payroll decline was better than expected. Hourly earnings were better than expected and compensation growth is back in the black. We continue to expect non-farm payrolls to revert to positive readings around year-end and see a chance for a downward revision in unemployment in December.

US: Wholesalers' Inventory Drawdown Slowed Marginally

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:08:54 GMT

To close out the third quarter, wholesalers drew down inventory at a slightly slower 0.9 percent pace. Sales improved 0.7 percent, slower than the prior month primarily due to the expiration of cash-for-clunkers. Sales Improved as Inventory Declines Continue The massive inventory cycle is continuing as expected; wholesalers have made significant progress in drawing down inventories in a persistently weak sales environment. Sales increased at a slower pace as automotives gave back summer’s

US Employment: Skills and Policy Issues—Beyond Stimulus

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

September job losses of 190,000 combined with higher unemployment and low confidence suggest consumer spending will lag. Under the headlines are issues of structural change and policy disincentives. Employment Lags Recovery—Jobless Recovery Persists for Now Over recent economic recoveries, job gains have lagged and this cycle is no different. This pattern will last for the rest of 2009 and persist into spring of next year—especially for private sector jobs. That is the cyclical story, but

Canadian employment: A part-time youths story in October

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

Latest (monthly change): -43.2k (Actual); +10.0k (expected) Previous: +30.6k FACTS: Canadian employment lost ground in October, as the economy shed 43.2K jobs after adding 30.6K one-month earlier. The decrease is fully explained by the drop in parttime employment (-59.7K). Fulltime jobs rose for a second consecutive month (+16.5). Public sector jobs fell by 25.6K and private sector jobs declined 45.2K, while self-employed increased by 27.5K. At the industry level, the goods producing sector

US: Productivity Growth Surged During the 3Q

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Nonfarm productivity growth surged 9.5 percent during the third quarter as output rose 4.0 percent and hours worked declined 5.0 percent. Unit labor costs fell 5.2 percent, which will help keep inflation contained. Extraordinary Cost Cutting Helped Drive Productivity Nonfarm businesses continued to get lean and mean, finding ways to squeeze more output out of fewer workers. Total hours worked fell more than output increased, with hours falling 5.0 percent and output rising 4.0 percent. The

US: PREVIEW Non-Farm Payrolls

info@ransquawk.com (RANsquawk)

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M (Oct) Exp. -175K (Prev. Sep -263K, Aug -201K) Morgan Stanley -150K BNP Paribas -200K JP Morgan -140K Credit Suisse -150K Goldman Sachs -200K Deutsche Bank -175K Bank of America -180K HSBC Markets -175K Analyst consensus is for a drop of 175K non-farm jobs. This would mark the smallest loss for any month since March 2008. On the upside the jobs situation certainly

US: Update Productivity and ULC

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer)

Non-farm business sector labor productivity, defined as output per hour, rose by 9.5% in 3Q09, following a 6.9% increase in the second quarter. This quarter’s increase is the largest since 3Q03. The rise in productivity reflects the first stages of the recovery process. Output rose 4.2%, the first increase since 2Q08, but hours worked declined 4.9%, the seventh consecutive decline. The drop in hours is reflective of ongoing weakness in the labor market as companies are covering the growth in

US: Efficiency gains point to strong profits

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:35:25 GMT

U.S. Watch Productivity continues to surprise on the upside. According to just-released data, output per worker in the non-farm business sector surged 9.5% in Q3 2009, the strongest showing in six years. This increase more than offset the rise in hourly compensation granted to workers, leading to the third consecutive decline in unit labour costs (compensation adjusted for productivity). In other words, corporations continue to pocket the bulk of the efficiency gains. As today’s Hot Chart

November 2009

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:46:23 GMT

US: Update ADP Employment Report

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer)

According to the ADP National Employment Report, private non-farm payrolls dropped 203K jobs in October, fewer than the 227K jobs shed in September. While this is the smallest number of job losses since July 2008, it is also the twenty-first consecutive monthly decline. Job losses slowed to 117K from 146K in the goods producing sector, but rose to 86K from 81K in the services sector. Meanwhile losses slowed across firms of all sizes. Job destruction eased to 53K from 56K in large firms, 75K

US nfp job losses likely moderated in October

info@easy-forex.com (Easy Forex) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:55:36 GMT

US October unemployment and nonfarm payrolls (nfp) will be released on Friday, November 6th at 8:30 ET. Stability in recent US jobless claims data, a sharp rise in Q3 GDP, improvement in the employment index of the October manufacturing ISM and a continued decline in the ADP unemployment index points to a slowdown in nfp job losses during October. The October ISM employment index rose to its highest level since April 2006 at 53.1 from 46.2 in September. The ISM report suggests that hiring is

US: ISM Non-Manufacturing: Tenuous Growth in Service Sector

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:39:20 GMT

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite index declined to 50.6 in October, slightly down from last month’s reading but hanging on to expansionary territory. The recovery in the service sector remains fragile. Headline Down, Components Volatile While the headline fell off slightly, it remains above the key ‘50’ demarcation point, reflecting growth, albeit slow. Cautious consumers will weigh on the service sector for some time. New orders, a leading indicator for the service sector, have improved

US: Factory Orders Regain Lost Ground, Recovery Continues

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:12:46 GMT

After slipping 0.8 percent in August, new orders at U.S. manufacturers recovered in September as bookings climbed 0.9 percent for the month. The gradual recovery in business spending appears to be back on track. Making Progress, but a Long Way to Go With the gain in September, factory orders have essentially cancelled out the decline reported in August. Overall, orders have increased in five out of the last six months and are up 4.1 percent from their cycle low in March. While this is certainly

US: Signs of stabilization in labour markets

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

There are encouraging signs of stabilization in U.S. labour markets. The ISM report showed factory activity rising to a 43-month high of 55.7 in October. The most pleasant surprise of the report was the improvement of the employment component of the index. As today’s Hot Chart shows, that component rose to 53.1 in October, well above the level of 49.7 that is generally consistent with factory job creation. What’s encouraging is that this growth signal is comes just on the heels of the GDP

US: Strong ISM indicates labour market stabilisation

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)

The US manufacturing ISM index improved to levels consistent with above trend growth. The strong headline was matched by equally strong details suggesting stabilisation in manufacturing employment and continued strong momentum in manufacturing production. Going forward, we expect the ISM index to improve further with a year-end target of 60 and indications of further strength in early next year. That said the details in today’s report suggest that the future pace of improvement is likely to be

US: ISM Manufacturing Showed Renewed Gains in October

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:30:51 GMT

The ISM manufacturing survey gained more than three points to 55.7 with big jumps in production and employment. The employment index indicated expansion for the first time since July 2008. ISM Firmly in Expansion Territory The manufacturing sector continued to expand for the third straight month, with the sector leading a broader recovery. This is another clear sign the recession is over and the recovery has begun. New orders, the most forward looking sub-index, slipped for the second

US: Construction Spending Surprises to the Upside

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:26:00 GMT

Total construction spending rose 0.8 percent in September, far exceeding expectations. The residential component rose 3.9 percent driven by a spike in private improvements and single family outlays. Residential Construction Outlays Continued to Rise Residential construction spending rose with private residential construction spending increasing 3.9 percent. Gains were driven by private improvements and single family outlays, which rose 7.2 and 2.4 percent, respectively. Increases in single

Spain: Balance of payments August 09

estudios@lacaixa.es (La Caixa) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:12:14 GMT

US: ISM preview, October

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:31:49 GMT

Last month ISM disappointed, by falling slightly to 52.6 from August’ reading of 52.9. Also the important New Orders subindex showed signs of softness, although still at a high level Overall the local indices points towards an unchanged reading of ISM. However, the last couple of months the local indices have lagged the countrywide index. The New Orders index has risen in most of the local surveys this month. We believe that last month’s decline was a one-off affair

US: Personal Income and Spending: September 2009

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:18:50 GMT

Personal income was unchanged in September, while spending fell 0.5 percent. Spending was pushed down by the end of cash-for-clunkers. On an inflation adjusted basis, both disposable income and expenditures fell. Income Held Steady on Transfer Payments Personal income was roughly unchanged as increases in government transfer payments (0.8 percent) offset declines in wage & salaries (-0.2 percent). The labor market remains challenging and until we see real improvement, sustained wage gains

US: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Surged in October

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:28:57 GMT

The Chicago purchasing managers’ index jumped 8.1 points to 54.2 in October, the largest gain in about a year. The new orders and production indexes surged with both breaking the threshold of 50. Chicago PMI: Significant Upside Surprise The Chicago purchasing managers’ index jumped to 54.2 in October likely due to the increase in auto production from the cash-for-clunkers program. The increase is the largest since September 2008. The production and new orders indexes both spiked 15.1 and 16.7

Japan: Unemployment appears to have peaked

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:09:11 GMT

The unemployment rate surprisingly dropped for a second month in a row in September and there are now clear signs that the labour market has stabilised and the unemployment rate has peaked. In addition, there are signs in today’s consumer prices that deflationary pressure has started to ease. This calls into question the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) forecast that deflationary pressure will prevail well into 2011. Our call remains that the Bank of Japan will lag the ECB and

Canada: Canadian GDP edged down 0.1% in August

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:24:32 GMT

Latest: -0.1% (actual) +0.1% (expected) Previous: 0.0% FACTS: Real GDP at basic prices edged down 0.1% in August, after being unchanged in July (top chart). Oil & gas extraction (-2.3%) and primary metal manufacturing (-7.3%) were the main sources of the decline in August. Industrial production declined 0.8%. In goods-producing sectors, agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting (-2.2%) and mining (-1.4%) also retreated. In services,

US: Solid growth

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 18:18:09 GMT

The first estimate of Q3 US GDP was slightly below our estimate but nevertheless showed a firm increase in production. Private consumption is boosted by cash-for-clunkers and there will be some negative payback in Q4. A deeper inventory liquidation in Q3 than we expected leaves some upside risks to our growth forecast for the coming quarters. Going forward we expect around 4% q/q AR GDP growth in Q4 and Q1, partly because the pace of inventory depletion is slowing and

U.S.: GDP Up 3.5%—Recession Ends, but What is Sustainable?

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Real GDP grew at a 3.5 percent rate in Q3, led by federal government spending and inventory turnaround. Final sales gained as federal credits helped consumer spending and housing. Equipment spending was up. Growth Improves, Final Sales Build Case for Recovery The GDP gain reflects the fiscal stimulus spending with housing and consumer spending on durables both increasing. Inventory gains also added nearly one percentage point while net exports took off one-half a percentage point. Final sales

US: Business sector GDP expands 5% in Q3

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 15:38:23 GMT

The U.S. economy is finally beginning to grow again. Real GDP expanded 3.5% in Q3, the largest increase since the onset of the recession and the first positive quarter in just over a year. For our part, we were particularly encouraged by the 5% increase in business sector nominal GDP (a proxy for top-line growth). This is a most welcome development that should put an end to the aggressive cost-cutting triggered by the credit crisis that led to a plunge in investment spending and massive

Japan: Industrial production recovery remains

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)

• Industrial production in September increased for the seven month in a row and production plans suggest the recovery could pick up some speed in coming months on the back of low inventories and strong exports. • Today’s industrial production data suggest that Japan’s GDP growth is currently substantial above potential. In line with other Asian data released recently it suggests that the recovery has gained strength in late Q3. Industrial production appears to be picking up some speed again

U.S.: Durable Goods Orders

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer)

New orders for durable goods rose 1.0% in September after falling 2.6% in August. Furthermore, average new orders for the third quarter jumped up 2.9% compared to the second quarter, indicating that demand for these goods is resuming. Nevertheless, demand still remains extremely weak with orders 19.6% below those of last year. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.9% after dropping 0.4% in the previous month. Increases occurred in orders for primary metals (0.3%), machinery (7.9%) and

US: New Home Sales Dropped Back in September

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:43:29 GMT

Sales of new homes fell 3.6 percent to an annual pace of 402,000 units. In addition, the previous three months saw a net revision of -26,000 units. Weakness has clearly reappeared but we are still off the first half lows. Sales Dropped Likely Due to the Tax Credit Expiration Sales dropped 3.6 percent, the most since March. Still, we are well off of the lows set in the first quarter. The looming new home-buyer tax credit expiration at the end of November is likely responsible for at least

Canada: Time for currency realignment

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

A mounting chorus is urging the Bank of Canada (BoC) to intervene in currency markets to brake the loonie’s rise. The last time the Bank intervened unilaterally in foreign exchange markets was in September 1998. Since then, global trade has exploded and so has foreign exchange turnover. According to the Bank of International Settlement, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets stands at more than $US 3.1 trillion currently (up from $1.4 trillion in 1998). Of this amount, more

US: Durable Goods Bounced Back in September

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:58:28 GMT

Orders for durable goods at U.S. manufacturers regained some lost ground after last month’s drop. Ex-transportation, orders were better than expected—business spending is showing signs of recovery. Recovery Still Intact, for Now Durable goods orders gained 1.0 percent in September, right in-line with expectations. The theme of ongoing recovery appears to remain intact after a 2.6 percent drop in orders last month raised concern that the recovery was losing steam. Early cycle recovery

Canada: Prices up in August in all markets surveyed

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:14:26 GMT

m/m growth: Latest: +2.0% previous: +1.6% prior: +1.5% y/y growth: Latest: -3.4% previous: -5.1% prior: -6.2% FACTS : In August, the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM was up 2.0% from the month before, the fourth consecutive monthly rise after eight consecutive declines. For a second month in a row, prices rose in all six metropolitan areas surveyed. The increase was 2.7% in Toronto, 2.0% in Calgary, 1.7% in Vancouver, 1.5% in Ottawa,

Canada: Quebec's deficit for 2009-10 is now projected at $4.7 billion

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

Highlights Quebec’s deficit for 2009-10 is now projected at $4.7 billion (1.5% of GDP), up from $3.9 billion in the March budget. The difference of $749 million includes a provision of $300 million for possible revenue shortfall. The Quebec economy is now projected to contract 1.5% in 2009 and grow 1.7% in 2010. The finance minister is sticking with the target of 2013-14 for balancing the books and has reiterated the government’s intention to hold spending growth to 3.2% beginning in 2010-11.

South Africa: Inflation drops by more than expected

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)

South African inflation dropped to 6.1% y/y in September, down from 6.4% y/y in August, and was lower than both consensus and our expectations. Details Statistics South Africa published inflation numbers for September today. Inflation dropped to 6.1% y/y, which was somewhat lower than our and consensus expectations of 6.3% y/y. The main culprit behind the larger-than-expected drop was lower food prices. Hence inflation is currently very close to the South African central bank’s (SARB)

US: Big gain advance Q3 GDP expected

info@easy-forex.com (Easy Forex)

US advance Q3 GDP will be released on Thursday October 29th. Q3 GDP is expected to rise by 3.2% compared to -0.7% last quarter. The GDP report is expected to post its first expansion since Q2 2008 and confirm the US economy has emerged from recession. GDP has contracted in five of the last six quarters. GDP posted a modest rise in Q2 2008 sparked by government rebate checks. Government spending likely contributed to improvement in Q3 GDP. Q3 GDP is expected to post a big gain with growth

EE.UU: Consumer Confidence Weakens in October

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:23:09 GMT

Consumer confidence fell 5.7 points in October to 47.7, with both the present situation and expectations components falling substantially. The drop reflects continuing fears about employment conditions. Lingering Fears About Jobs Drag Down Consumer Confidence The lack of hiring taking place across the economy coupled with the still-high level of layoffs is continuing to weigh on consumer confidence. The Consumer Confidence index fell 5.7 points to 47.7 in October. Both the present situation and

Spain: Supply and Demand Indicators September 2009

estudios@lacaixa.es (La Caixa) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:17:20 GMT

Will China begin to withdraw stimulus?

info@easy-forex.com (Easy Forex)

Last week China reported that the economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year with Q3 GDP at 8.9%. China reported a sharp rise in September industrial output and retail sales as well. Industrial output rose 13.9% and retail sales rose 16%. The rapid rise in China’s growth reflects the impact of record fiscal and monetary stimulus implemented by the Chinese government and central bank to boost growth. China announced a $585 bln stimulus package in April and the central bank expanded bank

Lithuania: Recovery or massive deflation?

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:19:02 GMT

Lithuanian GDP: Recovery or massive deflation? Today, Lithuanian Statistics has published its flash estimate of GDP growth for Q3 09 – GDP fell by 14.3% y/y, up from a fall of 20.2% y/y in Q2. The outcome was significantly better that the consensus forecast and our estimate of a drop of 25% y/y. However, we believe the quality of the numbers is highly questionable as they indicate a recovery in GDP that has not been reflected in the monthly data and as

US: Positive revenue growth just around the corner

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

The current earnings season is nothing short of stellar: so far 81% of the first 199 S&P 500 companies to report earnings came in above expectations on their thirdquarter 2009 results. But this time around, we are also interested by the top line. We have previously said it was a good thing that U.S. companies were busy cutting costs. This made them more productive. But cost-cutting alone will not produce a sustainable economic recovery. Top-line growth is needed if employment is to grow