FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Reports on Economic Indicators

ECB: taking time

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 20:23:54 GMT

At today’s Governing Council meeting, the ECB decided to leave key policy rates unchanged. The refi rate remained at its lowest rate of 1%. As always, the ECB did not close neither open the doors for further interest rate cuts. However, current still poor economic conditions, suggest that the refi rate might be decreased further. The ECB wants to evaluate the impact of all the actions taken so far, before adopting further measures. At today’s Governing Council meeting, the ECB decided to leave

Japan: Manufacturers reluctant to place orders

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 10:22:40 GMT

Domestic machinery orders were weak in December. This mainly reflected the uncertainty concerning the global and domestic economy. By contrast, overseas orders rose for the second consecutive month, boosted by rebuilding of production sites in Thailand after the flooding. Machinery orders were weak in December. Total orders declined by 7.2% from the previous month. Core orders, domestic private orders excluding volatile items, fell by 7.1%, whereas financial markets had anticipated a more

US Bank Lending: Fed's Survey Suggests Support for Growth

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Loan markets for both business loans and prime residential mortgages are approaching normal functioning as lending standards and demand are stabilizing. Credit markets now support sustained expansion. Business Lending Standards: Approaching Stability Current patterns for both lending standards and credit demand appear to be settling into a stable balance typical of an economic expansion, as evidenced by the latest Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. As suggested in the top

Canadian housing starts edged down in January

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:46:28 GMT

FACTS: Canadian housing starts edged down to 197.9K units in January from a slightly revised 199.9K in December. Urban starts decreased 5K, or 2.8%, to 176.6K. Starts in rural areas increased 3K to 21.3K. Urban single family starts decreased 5.5K, or 7.8%, to 64.9K while multiple starts edged up 0.5K, or 0.4%, to 111.7K. On a regional basis, starts declined markedly in Quebec (from 50.0K to 35.5K) and in Nova Scotia (from an unusually high 8.5K to 2.7K), and moderately in Alberta (from 28.3K

Japan: Poor weather weighs on business sentiment

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 10:19:16 GMT

Sentiment among the Economy Watchers deteriorated sharply in January. However, our own seasonal adjustment suggests that business sentiment was virtually unchanged. The expectations index improved despite severe downside risks such as yen appreciation and electricity shortages during the summer months. Sentiment among the Economy Watchers deteriorated sharply in January, as the current conditions index lost almost 3 points. This may be attributed to bad weather, as the results are not being

Canada: Import prices on the rise despite loonie's strength

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:27:13 GMT

Canada Watch Conditions in the 2000s were highly conducive to keeping inflation in Canada in check. The massive influx of cheap Asian imports and the loonie’s sharp ascent contributed to curb the progression of the Canadian consumer basket via weak goods inflation. Those conditions have now changed. As today’s Hot Chart shows, despite a slight appreciation of the loonies over the last two years, import prices are strongly on the rise in Canada. For years, currency appreciation meant lower

Hungary: Tricky base effect, +6.7% wda in December

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:49:17 GMT

While today’s preliminary industrial figures came in below expectations, we would not come to the solid conclusion that this is a great negative surprise. As for the outlook for 2012, we expect 3.5% growth. The decline in the manufacturing sentiment indicators in the autumn months to below 50 suggest that export performance may be less favourable than in 2011. Effect of fewer working days in December 2011 shows in figures Today’s preliminary industrial data came in lower than expected, showing

Germany: A large fall in industrial production

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:30:58 GMT

Industrial production fell by 2.9% m/m in December 2011 after remaining unchanged the previous month. Output fell in all sectors, but it sharply dropped in construction sector. Manufacturing production also fell by 2.7% m/m (after -0.3% m/m in November). All in all, manufacturing production dropped by 2.3% q/q in Q4 2011. However the development in manufacturing orders (-1.4% q/q in Q4 2011, after -3.7% q/q in Q3 2011) suggests a less unfavourable development of manufacturing activity at the

Japan: Gains in business indicators after ending Thai floods

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:30:13 GMT

Both the coincident and the leading indicator strengthened in December. This is mainly related to the ending of the flooding in Thailand. We expect industrial activity to remain more or less flat in the coming months. Both the coincident and the leading indicator strengthened in December by 2.9 points and 0.6 point, respectively. According to the Cabinet Office, the gain of the coincident indicator signals a possible turning point. By contrast, the lagging indicator inched down by 0.3 point.

Figures for Spanish economy

estudios@lacaixa.es (La Caixa) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:34:17 GMT

January Employment Situation Surprises to the Upside

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:21:14 GMT

Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated for the third consecutive month, up 243K in January following a upward revision of 60K combined for November and December The unemployment rate fell to 8.3% but was likely influenced by a drop in the participation rate Nonfarm payroll growth beat consensus expectations in January, jumping 243K following upward revisions to both November (from 100K to 157K) and December (from 200K to 203K). Gains were led primarily by a 257K rise in private sector hiring, with

US Factory Orders Remained Positive in December

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Factory orders increased for the second consecutive month, at 1.1 percent, after posting an upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in November. This adds to the positive news on the state of the U.S. manufacturing sector. New Orders Slowed Down in December The pace of growth in new orders slowed a bit in December, growing by 1.1 percent after an upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in November. Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 0.6 percent, higher than the 0.5 percent increase in

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Signals Improving Sentiment

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

The ISM non-manufacturing index climbed 3.8 points to 56.8, the strongest reading for service sector sentiment in almost a year and firmly in line with a view towards economic expansion. More Good News for Jobs On the heels of a better-than-expected print for nonfarm payrolls, today’s ISM non-manufacturing survey lifts expectations for further job gains in the coming months. Indeed, the employment component soared to 57.4—the highest level in almost six years. In a typical month, the ISM

US Employment: Gains in Jobs and Hours Worked Tell of Growth

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Nonfarm employment rose by 243,000 in January, as hiring gains continued in professional services, construction and manufacturing. Hours worked improved and suggests continued economic expansion. Solid Job Gains—A Story of Economic Expansion January’s increase of 243,000 in nonfarm jobs continued the string of monthly job gains in many sectors as evidenced by the positive turns in all three super sectors shown in the top graph. Consistent monthly gains have been evident in business services,

US: The unemployment rate gender gap closes in January

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:59:16 GMT

Private payroll employment expanded 257,000 in January, the best showing in nine months. This figure was all the more impressive as it came on the heels of a 220,000 gain in December. Recent hiring trends have been particularly beneficial to industries where men figure more predominately. As today’s Hot Chart shows, cyclical industries such as manufacturing, mining & logging, construction and transportation & warehousing added a total of 94,000 jobs in January – one of the best showing

Canadian employment: essentially unchanged in January

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

OPINION: Canadian employment remained essentially unchanged in January, a performance well below consensus expectations for a 22K gain. One silver lining of this report is the performance of the private sector (+19.7K). This sector increased headcounts for a third month in a row thanks to solid performance of the manufacturing sector which benefits from improvements south of the border. Despite this rebound, private sector jobs in Canada still remain below last July’s peak due to the massive

United States: Champagne!

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 14:44:20 GMT

The January labour market report is extremely positive, with243 000 jobs created. Details show the strength was across the board, with strong figurse for manufacturing, construction and private services. Additionally, the unemployment rate reached its lowest since February 2009. This should be enough to reassure FOMC members about the strength of the recovery. The January labour market report is extremely positive. Non-farm payrolls grew by 243 000 over the month, accelerating from an already

US Nonfarm Payrolls +243K; Jobless Rate 8.3%

globicus@globicus.com (Globicus.com) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 14:06:51 GMT

United Kingdom: Services activity continued expanding in January

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:24:55 GMT

In January, the business activity index in the services sector was up from 54.0 in December to 56.0, back to its highest level since last March. Furthermore, it signals that activity in services has probably rebounded at the beginning of the year, after having stagnated in Q4 2011. Consequently, the composite PMI for January rose from 51.5 in December to 53 in January, pointing that activity accelerated at the beginning of this year. If this trend is to continue in the coming months, it seems

World: Perspective on credit for SMEs

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

The growth potential of different regions of the world in 2012 will depend in large part on the underlying credit environment, both for government and corporations. At this juncture, North America is well positioned. The euro zone sovereign debt uncertainty notwithstanding, corporate bond yields in North America remain near record lows. That is good news for large firms but what about the small and medium sized enterprises who tend to be more dependent on the banking sector for their financing

US: The Fragile Fiscal Policy Outlook: I

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

The Congressional Budget Office’s release this week of the Budget and Economic Outlook reiterated the unsustainable nature of current fiscal policy and reflected a more pessimistic outlook for economic growth. Comparing the Economic Outlooks The release this week of the Congressional Budget Office’s Budget and Economic Outlook painted a picture of unsustainable fiscal policy and a much slower economic growth environment over the next decade. The path of economic growth according to the CBO is

US: Productivity Growth Pulls Back in the Fourth Quarter

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Reflecting a strong rebound in hours worked, nonfarm productivity increased at a 0.7 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Unit labor costs increased 1.2 percent on the back of higher compensation costs. Productivity Slows Over 2011 Nonfarm productivity growth pulled back significantly in the fourth quarter as output per worker increased 3.6 percent, while hours worked rose 2.9 percent. For the year, productivity increased 0.7 percent–significantly lower than 2010’s 4.1 percent pace.

US: ISM Signals More Temperate Growth But Watch Out for Prices

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 54.1 for January, essentially unchanged from 53.9 the month prior. The big positive is a jump in the orders component to 57.6, but input prices are showing signs of a bounce. Businesses Look for Temperate Growth…With an Eye on Prices The headline print of 54.1 was somewhat less than the 54.5 that had been expected by the consensus, but not enough to call the report a disappointment. This key sentiment index is still at a level consistent with firmly

US: Construction Spending Ends the Year on a Positive Note

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Total construction spending rose 1.5 percent in December, with broad-based gains. Private residential outlays increased 0.8 percent and nonresidential rose 3.3 percent. Construction will likely add to fourth-quarter GDP. Structures Should Add to Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Construction spending rose to an $816.4 billion annual pace, up 4.3 percent on a year-ago basis. Prior months’ data were revised downward. However, based on the BEA’s assumption for fourth-quarter economic growth, we now expect

United States: Manufacturing on the rise

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 16:12:32 GMT

The January reading of the ISM highlights a manufacturing recovery gaining momentum. The composite index reached its highest level since the summer 2011, and the component for new orders announce this trend is not too last. Even if welcome news, this development is not as crucial as the one of the labour market. See you next Friday! The manufacturing ISM survey highlights another improvement in confidence in January. The composite index increased for the third month in a row, to 54.1, the

Euro Zone: Inflation stable in January

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 11:30:33 GMT

Inflation was stable at 2.7% in January, after declining by 0.3 pp in the previous month. VAT increases have increased prices of many items in January, probably offsetting the positive effects coming from energy related base effect. Nevertheless, inflation is on a downward trend and it is likely to fall back below 2% this summer, and remain below this threshold thereafter. Inflation was stable at 2.7% in January, after declining by 0.3 pp in the previous month. VAT increases (notably in France,

US: Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly In January

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 16:42:18 GMT

Some of the optimism consumers expressed at the turn of the year appears to have given way. Consumer confidence fell 3.7 points to 61.1 in January, as concerns about job and income prospects intensified a bit. Optimism Gives Way, Just Like Many New Year’s Resolutions One month into the New Year consumers appear to have a decidedly less optimistic view of the 2012 economy. While the Consumer Confidence Index only fell 3.7 points in January, the drop was evident in nearly every key component of

Canadian GDP decreased in November

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

OPINION: Canadian GDP surprised to the downside in November, falling 0.1%, well below consensus expectations of +0.2%. Those forecasts would have been roughly right if Mining & Oil & Gas extraction sector have been flat instead of contracting 2.2%, its worst showing in 6 months. Note that this volatile sector which explained most of the strong growth observed in Q3, will now harm economic activity in Q4. We are not particularly worried by this poor performance given that it is

US: Another Steady Gain in Q4 Total Compensation Costs

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Total compensation costs for civilian workers increased as expected, up 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. While wages and salary growth remained tame, private sector benefit costs picked up as 2011 came to an end. Mixed Picture in Sector Benefit Costs Benefits, which constitute 30 percent of total compensation costs, provided a mixed picture by sector as 2011 came to a close. Private industry benefits growth remained elevated on a year-ago basis and currently stands at 3.6 percent. The public

France: Consumption falls at the end of 2011

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 11:00:01 GMT

Consumer goods spending fell sharply by 0.7% in December and by 3.1% on a year-on-year basis. This is largely due to an unusually mild weather. But this remains bad news and reminds us how under pressure households consumption is. However, for the whole fourth quarter, goods spending are stable. A zero figure for GDP growth thus remains a likely outcome contrary to our current expectations of a slight contraction.

Germany: New record low in the unemployment rate

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 10:34:40 GMT

According to the preliminary data released by the Federal Labour Office, the unemployment rate fell in January (to 6.7%). The number of unemployed recorded its largest decrease since March 2011 (-34, 000, after -25, 000 in December). The pace of increase in employment (published with one-month lag) was also strong in December. Up by 50, 000 m/m, it rose by 1.4% year-inyear. Employment probably should increase at a slower pace in the coming months, in line with an expected decline in economic

US: Personal Income and Saving Bounce Back In December

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Personal income rose a solid 0.5 percent in December, marking the largest gain in 10 months. With spending essentially flat, the stronger income gain helped boost the personal saving rate to 4.0 percent. Consumers May Have A Little More Staying Power Personal income rose 0.5 percent in December, and wages and salaries increased 0.4 percent. The gains likely reflect the pickup in hiring, particularly in the factory sector. Wages and salaries in the goods-producing sector jumped 1.0 percent and

Germany: Further slowdown in inflation

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 15:34:48 GMT

According to the first estimate, CPI inflation decreased for the fourth month in a row in January (to 2%, after 2.1% in December). According to regional data, used to estimate the preliminary CPI, inflation rose slightly in food sector, whereas it eased in energy sector. Over the month, prices dropped by 0.4% m/m. Regional data suggest that prices rose in food and in energy sectors. But, by contrast, they fell in leisure and hostel and restaurant sectors. According to the first estimate, CPI

Canada: Are older workers being careless about debt?

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

We have heard many concerns in recent months about the growing indebtedness of households. More recently, the focus of attention has turned to the seemingly “abnormal” number of older Canadians that are still using credit instead of repaying their debt. From our perspective, these households are far from being reckless. It is important to keep in mind that the participation rate of workers aged 55+ has increased significantly since the mid 1990s (from 23% to more than 34%). This development has

Spain: Back in red

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:28:24 GMT

The Spanish economy plunged in Q4 after seven consecutive quarters of growth. The positive contribution from net exports was not sufficient to offset the fall in domestic demand. Without support from external demand, the fiscal consolidation will be harder to achieve. GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q (+0.3% y/y) in Q4, implying an annual GDP growth of 0.7%. This is in line with our expectations and with the consensus. The fall in activity was probably driven by the decline in domestic demand.

Euro Zone: Incipient signs of improvement

bnpparibaseconomicresearchdepartment@bnpparibas.com (BNP Paribas) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:24:23 GMT

Economic conditions improved for the eurozone as a whole in January. The Economic Sentiment Indicator rose by 0.6 point to 93.4 in January. Admittedly, this was a small rise. Nevertheless, it was the first improvement in almost one year. The improvement was, however, highly dependent from the German recovery, which is largely outperforming its peers. This trend is likely to persist over the coming months. Economic conditions improved for the eurozone as a whole in January, according to the

Obama Administration Expands Mortgage Modifications

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:19:51 GMT

Increases eligibility for debt-constrained and underwater borrowers Will triple the payment to banks per dollar of principal forgiven Investors with rental properties will also be eligible Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s participation is up to federal regulators Following Tuesday’s State of the Union address, today the Obama Administration announced an expansion of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to help debt-laden and underwater borrowers. This announcement is the

Canada: Policies to keep the bond vigilantes at bay

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

Prime Minister Harper delivered a very important speech in Davos this week on the need to adopt new measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of social programs in Canada. After his recent warnings on the need to control healthcare spending, the PM is now calling on the need to better fund the retirement income system. We think that this decision comes at an opportune time. Back in the early 1960s when the bulk of social programs where introduced, there were about 7 workers per retired

US: Real GDP Growth in 4Q Strongest of 2011

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 17:09:09 GMT

The US economy grew 2.8% QoQ annualized in 4Q11 due in large part to strength in private inventories and personal consumption expenditures Negative contributions from government spending and imports influenced the lowerthan- expected figure The advance estimate brings 2011 real GDP growth to 1.7% Real GDP growth for 4Q11 came in at 2.8% QoQ annualized on a seasonally-adjusted basis, slightly lower than expected but still in line with our projections for stronger fourth quarter activity.

GDP: Modest Growth Continues-Sustained Expansion Ahead

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Real GDP rose 2.8 percent with gains in consumer spending, business equipment investment and housing. The negatives were the restructuring in local government and federal defense cuts. Inflation is slowing. Growth: Continued Momentum at a Modest Pace Sustained growth—neither boom nor bust—remains the theme for this economy and has been our outlook now for some time. Real GDP rose at a 2.8 percent pace in the fourth quarter and is up 1.6 percent from a year ago. The gains in the fourth quarter