FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Reports on Economic Indicators

Romania: In the light of the Romanian presidential elections

Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:41:22 GMT

Romania is preparing for the presidential vote to be held on November 22. Electing a president may help the financially ailing country not only in restoring investors sentiment to the country and strengthening the Romanian currency but also in pushing the bailout loan payment which is currently being stalled by the IMF. Unfortunately much points to the fact that there is lack of support for an outright victory which may force a second run off on December 6, which also means that the Romanian

US: Philadelphia Fed shows continued Growth in Manufacturing

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:14:39 GMT

The Philadelphia Fed general activity index rose to 16.7 in November, the fourth consecutive month the index has indicated expansion. The new orders and shipments indexes jumped. The average workweek was positive. Manufacturing Activity Picking up The general activity index rose 5.2 points to 16.7, higher than consensus expectations. The percent of respondents reporting a decrease in activity has plunged to 16.9 percent from the cycle high of 52.6 in December 2008. The new orders index rose to

US: Conference Board Economic Indexes Paint Mixed Picture

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:51:41 GMT

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.3 percent in October signaling modest growth in the U.S. economy will continue into 2010. The Coincident Index is still stuck in neutral. Slow Growth Likely to Continue The seventh consecutive monthly gain in the LEI is consistent with our outlook for economic recovery to continue into 2010. That said, the pace of growth will likely be below trend for most of the year. Unfortunately, the components of LEI that contributed the most to this month’s

US: Preview of US jobless claims, LEI and Philly Fed

info@easy-forex.com (Easy Forex) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:27:42 GMT

On November 19th at 8:30A.M. ET initial jobless claims for the week ending 11/14 will be released. Recent statements by Fed Chairman Bernanke indicate that Fed rate policy decisions will be closely tied to the outlook for the US labor market. The Fed is unlikely to hike rates before US employment returns to growth. The unemployment outlook in the US remains weak. Tuesday a number of groups representing African-Americans labor unions Hispanics and others urged Congress to take more action to

US: Housing Starts Pull Back Sharply in October

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:50:08 GMT

Housing starts plummeted 10.6 percent in October as the planned ending of the first-time home-buyers tax credit caused builders to ratchet back new construction. Multi-family permits also plunged over the month. Housing Starts See a Big Payback Builders appear to have pulled back on starts of new single-family homes in October as they awaited news about whether the first-time home-buyers tax credit would be extended. Outside of the earlier bump in demand due to the tax-credit, demand for new

Canada: Total inflation: ceases to decline in October

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:45:22 GMT

Total CPI : Latest (y/y) : +0.1 (actual) +0.1% (forecast) previous :-0.9% CPIX : Latest (y/y): +1.8% (actual) +1.7% (forecast) Previous :+1.5% FACTS: Headline CPI inflation rose 0.1% in October compared to 12-months earlier, marking the first year-overyear increase since May 2009. The index edged down 0.1% on the month after being flat one month earlier. The core CPI increased 0.1% on the month while the year-over-year rate moved up to 1.8% in October from 1.5% in September. Breadth improved

US: Consumer Prices Rose More Than Expected in October

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:24:04 GMT

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent in October, slightly ahead of expectations. Price hikes for food and energy items picked up during the month. Moderating housing costs continued to hold down core inflation. Food and Energy Prices Perked up in October Energy prices rose 1.5 percent in October and food prices inched up 0.1 percent. The increases helped push the overall CPI up 0.2 percent during the month. The headline inflation figure has likely bottomed for this cycle and will gradually

US: Update Retail Sales

e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com (BBVA Bancomer)

Retail sales rose 1.4% in October after dropping 2.3% in September. The increase was driven by a rebound in auto sales after they dropped in September due to the end of Cash for Clunkers program. They rose 8.3% and contributed 1.2 percentage points to the total. Retail sales are still low at 1.7% below those of last year, but they have improved markedly from their lowest point in April 2009 at 10% below those of the previous year. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.2%, marking the third

US: Risk appetite takes a temporary hit

info@easy-forex.com (Easy Forex)

The USD recovered from 2009 low in Tuesday's trade supported by a spike in risk aversion as the IMF warns that the global recovery may be sluggish. Uncertainty about the strength of the global recovery may temporarily limit selling of the USD but the underlying downtrend for the US will likely remain intact. Speaking in New York Monday, Fed Chairman Bernanke pledged to maintain low yields for an extended period and appeared to suggest that if unemployment continues to rise the extended period

US: Industrial Production Increased Slightly in October

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:12:11 GMT

Total output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities increased 0.1 percent—a smaller-than-expected gain. Manufacturing production slipped 0.1 percent, the first drop since June as auto-related production fell off. Modest Gains in Production Outside of Autos The boost to auto production from the cash-for-clunkers rebate program seems to be running out of gas, as motor vehicles and parts production slipped 1.7 percent. Outside of the auto sector, production picked up 0.1 percent in October,

US: Gains in Food and Energy Lifted October Wholesale Prices

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:08:07 GMT

Solid gains in food and energy prices lifted finished goods wholesale prices 0.3 percent in October. Excluding food and energy, prices fell 0.6 percent. Year-over-year, finished goods prices are still in negative territory. Consumer Goods Rise, Capital Goods Fall Led by a 1.6 percent gain in both the food and energy components, total finished goods prices rose slightly less than consensus expectations. Gains were broad-based across consumer goods which rose 0.6 percent. Capital goods prices

US: Discretionary spending leads rebound in retail sales

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

Retail sales expanded 1.4% in October, the fourth increase in six months. Encouragingly, nine of the twelve major categories showed an increase on the month. For our part, we remain most encouraged by the category that we qualify as discretionary spending: total retail sales less gasoline, grocery food and healthcare products. Such spending whose share of total retail sales exceeds 70% was up 1.8% in October, the fifth increase in six months. As today’s Hot Chart shows, discretionary sales,

EU emerges from recession, ECB exit next?

info@easy-forex.com (Easy Forex)

The EU reported that Q3 GDP rose 0.4%. A 0.5% rise was expected by the consensus of economists. The GDP rise confirms that EU is slowly emerging from recession. As the EU economy emerges from recession the ECB is expected to begin its plans for an exit strategy from monetary stimulus. Monday, the ECB's Weber said that the EU must begin preparations for an exit from extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures. The withdrawal of stimulus will be gradual because of uncertainty as to whether the EU

US: More progress among consumers

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:29:51 GMT

October retail sales was a mixed back, with upward and downward revisions to the prior months. However, the signs of underlying improvement in retail sales continues. Q4 real consumption is tracking a stronger level than previously thought. This is partly due to a snap-back in auto sales and partly because spending outside autos is recovering gradually. The outlook for consumption hinges on the strength of the labour ma rket and its ability to support real income growth. We continue to expect

Canada: Factory sales up 1.4% in September

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:24:26 GMT

Manufacturing sales Latest: +1.4% (Actual) +1.7% (Expected) Previous: -1.8% FACTS: Factory sales were up 1.4% in September, partially reversing the 1.8% decline posted in August (revised upward from -2.1%). In September, sales were up in 14 of 21 manufacturing industries, representing 53% of total sales. But the rise in sales was totally accounted by motor vehicles & parts (+15.6%). Excluding the latter, manufacturing sales were down 0.4%, as hefty increases in primary metals (+6.7%) and

US: Empire Index Suggests Slower Pace of Recovery

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:03:30 GMT

The Empire Index slipped from 34.6 to 23.5 reflecting a slower pace of recovery, but a recovery none-the-less. The orders, shipments and employment measures all slipped from October, but remain in positive territory. Slower Recovery, but Brightening Outlook The November reading suggests a slower pace of economic expansion in the New York manufacturing sector than reported in October. Still, this marks the fourth consecutive month of expansion, and the expectations for six months out continued

US: Retail Sales Increased in October

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:40:30 GMT

Retail sales climbed 1.4 percent after dropping a revised 2.3 percent in September. Big moves in sales at auto dealers have swung the headline for three straight months, while “core” sales have seen modest steady gains. Sales Higher as We Head into Holiday Season Sales moved higher in October as motor vehicle and parts sales bounced back, up 7.4 percent. Our preferred “core” sales series which excludes gas, building materials and auto dealers increased for the third straight month, up 0.5

Japan: From underperformer to outperformer

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:22:47 GMT

GDP growth was much stronger than expected and Japan, for the second quarter in a row, was the strongest performing G7 economy. Significantly, private domestic demand improved substantially due to both the impact from fiscal stimulus programme and the sharp recovery in exports starting to spill over into domestic demand. Today’s strong GDP data support our view of a very strong early recovery phase in Japan. Japan has mainly been hit by a collapse in external demand and as long as global trade

US: Import Prices Rise Again, But Little Inflation in the Pipeline‏

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:03:43 GMT

Not only did the price of import oil rise in October, but most other categories posted increases as well. That said, overall import prices remain lower than they were twelve months ago. Increases in Import Prices Were Widespread Import prices rose 0.7 percent in October relative to the previous month, the third consecutive month in which overall import prices have risen. Petroleum prices were up 0.9 percent. Since bottoming in January, prices of imported oil are up 75 percent. Other commodity

Spain: Consumer Price Index October 09

estudios@lacaixa.es (La Caixa) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:44:42 GMT

Canada: Trade deficit narrowed in September

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

OPINION: This morning’s report is encouraging. In effect, the decline in real non-energy exports experienced in August proved temporary (middle chart). In real terms, the revival in exports was especially important in automotive products, up 17% as new models were introduced and some manufacturers resumed production after summer shutdowns. True, during Q3, real merchandise imports increased a whopping annualized 44%, against 20% for exports. While this means a substantial deterioration in the

Wider Trade Deficit in September Will Reduce Q3 GDP Growth

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:35:12 GMT

Exports rose for the fifth consecutive month and imports jumped up, due to higher oil prices and restocking after “cash-for-clunkers.” By itself, the wider deficit will shave 0.4 percentage points from Q3 GDP growth. Both Exports and Imports Rose Strongly in September In the increase in the trade deficit from $30.8 billion in August to $36.5 billion in September belies the $3.5 billion rise in exports. Exports have risen for five consecutive months, which reflects stronger growth in the rest

CEE: Q3 GDP numbers a mixed bag

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:25:07 GMT

GDP figures for Q3 for Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania were released this morning. While the Czech and Romanian numbers in general were uplifting, the Hungarian and Bulgarian numbers were relatively dismal. The overall conclusion from the numbers is that the recovery in the CEE economies is still quite weak – and for some countries one could even argue that the recovery has barely started. Czech recovery under way large revision in Q2 numbers Czech GDP dropped 4.1% y/y in Q3

Slovakia: Recovery continued in 3Q09 (+1.6% q/q)

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)

According to the flash estimate of the Statistical Office, real GDP increased by seasonally adjusted 1.6% q/q in 3Q09 , following a downwardly revised increase by 1% in 2Q09 (previously reported at +2.2%). An annual decline in GDP narrowed from -5.3% to -4.9% in line with our forecast and slightly above market expectations (average: -5.3%). The GDP structure will be released only on December 3rd; nevertheless, we ascribe quarterly improvement to industry, where production increased by strong

Hungary: GDP fell 7.2% y/y in 3Q09

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)

According to the CSO’s flash estimate, GDP fell 7.2% y/y in 3Q09. The figure came as a negative surprise, as the economic decline exceeded both our expectation of 6.8% y/y and the market consensus of 6.6-6.7% y/y. Taking the calendar effect into consideration, the economy dropped by 7.2% y/y in July-September, as well. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP decreased by 1.8%, which also seems as unpleasant, considering that this was only a minimal improvement, after the 2% q/q decline,

U.S.:How much more do claims need to drop before we see a positive payroll?

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:01:10 GMT

Initial jobless claims dropped 12K to 502K in the week ended November 7, the lowest level since the beginning of the year. Encouragingly, jobless claims are decreasing faster than in the two previous recoveries. Nevertheless, some pundits consider another drop of at least 100K initial claims are required in order to return to job creation in the U.S. This conclusion is far from certain. As today’s Hot charts shows, when new claims are standardised over time to take into account the increasing

Canadian dollar continues to gain on housing report

Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)

The USDCAD pair has declined for the second week as it moves back to the yearly low. The pair is being driven down by solid Canadian macroeconomic figures and weakness of the dollar. Canada's economic recovery is unfolding slowly but surely, new data showed this month. Housing market in particular appears to be back on track to growth levels not seen since the recession started. Canadian housing starts rose 5.4% in October to an annualized level of 157k. While expectations had been for a

China: A more balanced recovery 111109

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)

Today’s economic data suggest that China’s recovery is becoming more balanced with private domestic demand and exports substituting public investments as the main growth engines. October data is not as strong as today’s press headlines suggest. Overall domestic demand and imports have slowed and Chinese imports of important commodities declined substantially in October. However, some of this weakness is probably explained by an extended holiday in October and should prove temporary. October

Estonia: decline in growth decelerates

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:30:48 GMT

Estonian Statistics has today published the flash estimate of GDP growth over Q3 09. GDP declined by 15.3% y/y in Q3 09 compared with a fall of 16.1% y/y in Q2 09. The outcome was better than our estimate of a drop of 16.5% y/y. Details Estonian GDP declined by 15.3% y/y in Q3 09 compared with -16.1% y/y in Q2 09. The decline in growth has decelerated somewhat, with seasonally and working day adjusted GDP declining by 2.8% q/q in Q3 09 compared with a decline of 3.4% q/q in Q2 09. We see few

Preview: BoE Quarterly Inflation Report

info@ransquawk.com (RANsquawk)

King & his knights continue to fight evil that is the credit crunch… Apart from scrutinizing the latest CPI and GDP projections from the Bank of England, markets will also be looking for hints in regards to the future of the Gilt buyback program which was extended to GBP 200bln last week. The UK's struggle to return to growth has prompted some suggestions that the bond purchases are not having the desired effect. However, King is expected to defend the QE and say that Bank’s asset

US: Lowest bank tightening in C and I loans since the onset of recession

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:51:11 GMT

The just-released Senior Loan Officer Survey on bank lending practices showed the percentage of U.S. banks tightening standards for large and medium commercial and industrial loans fell significantly from 31.5% in July to 16.1% in October, i.e. the lowest level since the onset of recession. Of course, the percentage is higher for commercial real estate but it only reflects the backwardness of activity in this sector. As today’s Hot charts shows, this survey is not a leading indicator of the

US:Housing starts rise in October

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:53:50 GMT

Annual rate Latest : 157.3K (actual); 158.5K (forecast); Previous 149.3K (revised from 150.1K) FACTS: Canadian housing starts increased by 5.4% in October to 157.3K units from an downwardly revised 149.3K units in September. Urban starts rose 5.2% to 139.9K while starts in rural areas advanced by 6.8%. Single family units in urban areas fell to 67.3K from 69.2K while multi family units in urban areas surged to 72.6K from 63.8K. On a regional basis, Ontario showed the strongest performance

Latvia: decline has bottomed out

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:25:31 GMT

Today Latvian Statistics has published its flash estimate of GDP growth for Q3 09, GDP dropped by 18.4 y/y, slightly up from minus 18.7% y/y in Q2 09. The outcome was better than out estimate of a drop of 19.6% y/y, but it is obviously too early to speak of significant stabilisation of the economy. Details Latvian GDP dropped 18.4% y/y in Q3 09, slightly up from minus 18.7% y/y in Q2 09. This fuelled the hope that the worst in Latvian recession is over. It should be mentioned that a

US: Another Staggering Drop in Consumer Credit

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

Consumer credit outstanding plunged further in September by $14.8B, much more than consensus estimates. Revolving credit dropped $9.9B while the non-revolving component fell $4.9B. Revolving Credit Plunged Again The revolving component continued to fall at a 13.3 percent annual pace, similar to the decline in August. This put the drop in revolving credit for the third quarter at $22.7B. Nonrevolving credit increased $0.2B in August in the revised data, likely attributable to the

Slovakia: September Industrial Production

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 10:43:49 GMT

On monthly basis, industrial production increased markedly in September Industrial production again surprised on the upside in September, as it fell only by 5.2% y/y (after a revised -6.3% y/y in August). The market expected around -10% y/y, we forecasted -13% y/y. After seasonal adjustment, the industrial production grew by 4.6% m/m (Slovak Statistical Office published seasonally adjusted figures for the first time), which is even more impressive after monthly growth by 5.5% a month ago. We

US: Labour market stabilization is in the offing

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

Payroll employment fell 190,000 in October. This was slightly worse than consensus expectations (-175,000) but keep in mind that the level of employment was revised up a cumulative 91,000 over the two previous months. The unemployment rate hit 10.2% in October, the highest level since April 1983. This is the most disappointing part of the report that will certainly gather most of the attention from market participants. Is there no light at the tunnel for job creation in the U.S.? We have been

US: employment, not as bad as it looks

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:50:31 GMT

The October labour market report embedded both positive and negative news. The unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% but the decline in non-farm payrolls slowed to -190K. With a net revision of +91K, the overall payroll decline was better than expected. Hourly earnings were better than expected and compensation growth is back in the black. We continue to expect non-farm payrolls to revert to positive readings around year-end and see a chance for a downward revision in unemployment in December.

US: Wholesalers' Inventory Drawdown Slowed Marginally

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:08:54 GMT

To close out the third quarter, wholesalers drew down inventory at a slightly slower 0.9 percent pace. Sales improved 0.7 percent, slower than the prior month primarily due to the expiration of cash-for-clunkers. Sales Improved as Inventory Declines Continue The massive inventory cycle is continuing as expected; wholesalers have made significant progress in drawing down inventories in a persistently weak sales environment. Sales increased at a slower pace as automotives gave back summer’s

US Employment: Skills and Policy Issues—Beyond Stimulus

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)

September job losses of 190,000 combined with higher unemployment and low confidence suggest consumer spending will lag. Under the headlines are issues of structural change and policy disincentives. Employment Lags Recovery—Jobless Recovery Persists for Now Over recent economic recoveries, job gains have lagged and this cycle is no different. This pattern will last for the rest of 2009 and persist into spring of next year—especially for private sector jobs. That is the cyclical story, but

Canadian employment: A part-time youths story in October

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada)

Latest (monthly change): -43.2k (Actual); +10.0k (expected) Previous: +30.6k FACTS: Canadian employment lost ground in October, as the economy shed 43.2K jobs after adding 30.6K one-month earlier. The decrease is fully explained by the drop in parttime employment (-59.7K). Fulltime jobs rose for a second consecutive month (+16.5). Public sector jobs fell by 25.6K and private sector jobs declined 45.2K, while self-employed increased by 27.5K. At the industry level, the goods producing sector