FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Analysis Reports

US Session News Summary

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:17:50 GMT

Canada Unemployment Rise Canada released today the unemployment report for the month of October, whereas unemployment rose in October to 8.6% from the prior reported rise of 8.4% and above median estimates of 8.5%. Meanwhile, the change in Non-farm payrolls showed that employers shed in October 43,200 jobs following the prior added 30,600 back in September. US unexpected gloomy unemployment rate The US released its Unemployment rate for October showing an unexpected depressing incline as it

Dollar index bull fund call options continue to attract attention

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:46:29 GMT

UUP - PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Fund – Call options continue to be bought again today in this ETF tracking the performance of the U.S. dollar index. We’re coming around to the view that rather than expecting a bullish perspective on the behavior of the dollar, some savvy options traders paid attention to the filing on Tuesday by the fund’s managers who noted that they may have to create more shares in order to meet growing demand. Heavy option activity followed, which may have created

Headline unemployment rate creates dollar shocker

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:42:47 GMT

We’re not quite sure what all the fuss is about this morning when it comes to splicing and dicing the non-farm payrolls report. A 10.2% headline national rate of unemployment - the first in 26 years grabbed attention upon the announcement and created an avalanche of currency selling in favor of the dollar by investors. And how wrong they were! The actual payroll decline of 190,000 might have been 15,000 more than analysts were primed for but it was only the second time since August 2008 that

More short-term strength

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:16:32 GMT

Global update Global PMI increased to 55.7 in October indicating a further strengthening of global growth in the next couple of quarters. Signs of a recovery in domestic demand are emerging, but the markets are still questioning the sustainability of the recovery in the developed countries. BoE expanded asset purchases slightly less than expected and was slightly more optimistic in its rhetoric on the economy. BoE is not likely to deliver more QE. ECB kept rates on hold and was slightly more

London Gold Market Report

info@bullionvault.com (BullionVault.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:28:02 GMT

Gold Gains 5% for the Week as Stocks Fall on Shock US Jobs Data THE PRICE OF GOLD rose sharply from a fresh all-time Gold Fix of $1095 per ounce in London on Friday after new data put US unemployment at a 26-year high of 10.2% in October. Average hourly wages improved – up 0.3% month-on-month – but the average working week held at 33.0 hours. Canada also lost jobs in Oct. new figures showed, taking unemployment to 8.6%. The UK reported weaker-than-expected wholesale price inflation. German

CDS indices remain range bound

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:45:01 GMT

Summary CDS indices remain range bound CIT files for chapter 11 RBS forced to sell off assets Lloyds announces debt exchange offer and rights issue Headlines from the credit market this week Banks are back in the headlines following CIT’s filing for chapter 11 as well as the restructuring plans by RBS and Lloyds (more on all three topics below). Nonetheless, both the senior financial CDS index as well as iTraxx Europe remain largely unchanged from last week. Currently, iTraxx

OECD leading indicators still point to very strong growth

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:27:05 GMT

OECD’s leading indicators for September were released today (OECD publication). The data continue to point to very strong growth in coming quarters, but also give the first early signals that momentum may fade a bit around Q1/Q2 2010. This is broadly in line with our expectations for global growth. We expect very strong growth in Q4 2009 and Q1 2010, but a soft patch setting in around Q2/Q3 2010. For now the leading indicators continue to support risky assets, but we may soon be reading

Unemployment Probably Rose to 9.9% in the United States, as Employers Shed 175K Jobs in October!

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:46:02 GMT

Investors are waiting impatiently for the infamous jobs report, as it should provide a better picture for the current conditions in the U.S. labor market, though we all know that the labor market is still under pressure from the ongoing economic weakness and will probably remain under pressure over the upcoming period, as companies continue to layoff workers in order to cut costs and survive the current weak conditions. The U.S. Labor Department will release today its Non-farm payrolls for the

The eurozone inflation rate will rise strongly and exit negative territory

communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:39:20 GMT

Country data so far available in October suggest a low risk of revision to the eurozone flash estimate (-0.1% yoy). The final release will be out on November 16: we have penciled in a 0.25pp boost to the headline rate coming from energy, while food inflation probably eased a bit further and core inflation was unchanged at 1.2% yoy. In November, the eurozone inflation rate will rise strongly and exit negative territory. Once again, energy will be the main driver, with the price of oil products

The week of the central banks

communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:33:01 GMT

Exit. A rapid removal of ZIRP by major central banks is not imminent. Factors arguing against this are doubts about the sustainability of the economic recovery, low (core) inflation and stable inflation expectations, as well as the strong headwinds impeding consumption and investment. There are, however, growing signs of a (verbally prepared) gradual scaling back of the more-than-generous liquidity supply measures. Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee probably had an intense discussion of

Markets subdued ahead of US payroll report

sales@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:30:55 GMT

European Market Update: Markets subdued ahead of US payroll report; EU Commission Report calls for vigilance as protectionist measures are adopted ECONOMIC DATA - (SZ) Swiss Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0%e; Unemployment Rate seasonally adj: 4.1% v 4.2%e - (FI) Finland GDP Indicator: -8.4% v -8.5%e - (FR) French Sept Trade Balance: -€1.8B v -€3.0Be, Central Gov't Balance: -€126M v -€128M prior - (RU) Russia Oct Reserves at $434.4B v $430.5Be - (HU) Hungarian Sept Trade Balance: €486M v €370Me -

PPI Inclines Ahead of the Inflation Report

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:20:56 GMT

The British economy has been witnessing improvement recently, yet prices are still facing downside pressure since the worst economic recession since WWII is weighing on the economy. CPI dropped in September to the lowest level in 5 years to 1.1% from 1.6% in August. The drop in commodity prices dragged prices to the downside where there are many firms and retailers suffering from decline in their sales. For instance, Sainsbury Plc, the third-largest supermarket in the U.K., posted decline in

Why The United States Is Condemned To A Decade Of Slow Growth

info@nbc.ca (National Bank of Canada) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:13:49 GMT

Americans are in a foul mood these days. Stagnating living standards, 10% unemployment, the mortgage meltdown, crippling debts and two unpopular wars are fuelling anger and resentment towards politicians, Wall Street and immigrants. Intuitively, Americans know that, contrary to what some economists are telling them, the good times may not be back anytime soon. Here’s why: 1. Short-term gain for long-term pain: The post-World War II CEOS with short life spans and ejector seats, who succeeded

US: Claims continue their downward trend

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:52:00 GMT

In the week ended October 18, initial claims dropped by 20 000 from an upwardly revised 532 000 to 512 000, while the consensus was looking for a figure of 522 000. Continuing claims , which are reported with an extra week lag, came out even more in line with expectations falling from an upwardly revised 5 817 000 to 5 749 000. The figures indicate that the trend in claims is still downwards and provides further evidence that the payrolls, scheduled for release today, might resume their

Europe Ahead: UK Producer Prices on Year Improve

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:21:12 GMT

ECB heads for gradual exit from liquidity measures

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:43:06 GMT

Markets: Fixed Income On Thursday, the yield curves in the US, euro zone and UK steepened further amid rising concerns that central bankers are keeping their policy too loose for too long and that sooner rather than later inflationary pressures may emerge. This was especially the case in the US and the UK, where the Fed had reaffirmed its commitment to keep the Fed funds rate at exceptionally low levels for an extended period and in the UK where the Bank of England yesterday decided to expand

Australia equities rally after RBA upgrade on economy

sales@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:54:53 GMT

Asian Market Update: Australia equities rally after RBA upgrade on economy; China steel pipe exports targeted by US Commerce Dept tariff; AUD, GBP firm on central bank actions ECONOMIC DATA - (AU) Australia Oct AiG Performance of Construction Index: 50.9 V 50.8 PRIOR (highest level since Feb 2008) - (JP) Japan Sept Prelim Leading Index: 86.4 v 86.2e; Coincident Index: 92.5 v 92.5e - (AU) Australia Oct Foreign Reserves: A$48.5B v A$48.9B prior SPEAKERS/PRESS - Asian equity markets

Asian Session News Summary

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:42:00 GMT

The RBA's quarterly monetary policy statement The Reserve Bank of Australia released its quarterly monetary policy statement today saying that economy will grow more than previously forecasted as the bank raised its economic expansion forecasts in 2009 to 1.75% compared with the previously expected 0.5%, while the economy is anticipated to expand 2.25% by mid 2010. The RBA said that the Asian region is leading global recovery and the region's financial systems didn't show same deteriorations

Estonian inflation is expected decline further in October

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:18:34 GMT

Review The Czech central bank (CNB) has decided to keep interest rates on hold keeping the key policy rate at 1.25% . This was in line with the consensus expectation, but contrary to our expectation of a 25 basis point cut. Even though the CNB kept rates unchanged yesterday it should be noted that three board members voted for a rate cut, while four voted for keeping rates unchanged. Furthermore, it should be noted that “non-rate easing tools” was debated – indicating that some CNB board

Slow down! Exit ahead…

communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:04:16 GMT

Today’s ECB press conference confirmed that central bankers begin to see the exit ahead, but are determined to approach it extremely slowly, to avoid the risk of derailing the recovery. It also confirmed that the major central banks are ready to sign a truce with the markets to avoid a head-on confrontation on the issue of asset bubbles—although Trichet was slightly more aggressive than Bernanke, and explicitly acknowledged that maintaining the current scope of liquidity support would pose a

Government Actions are a Vote of No Confidence

info@comstockfunds.com (Comstock Partners Inc.) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:53:26 GMT

We have been saying for some time that the economy will remain weak. The frantic efforts of the federal authorities indicate that they agree. Although the media has been parsing every word of this week's FOMC statement in minute detail, here, without the spin, is all you need to know as quoted directly from the statement. "Household spending...remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on

Bank of America bearish option position closed – shares rally

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:46:43 GMT

BAC - Bank of America Corp. – One investor banked profits today by unraveling a massive bearish credit spread established back on October 28, 2009. The trader’s decision to take profits ahead of expiration could be a bullish sign for BAC. Shares are trading up 2% near the end of the trading day to stand at $15.00. The investor originally sold approximately 130,000 calls at the November 16 strike for an average premium of 49 cents apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of calls

Carry On My Carry Trade

info@alaron.com (Alaron) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:00:54 GMT

Carry on my carry trade. We’ll be in pieces when it’s done. Put all your bearish thoughts to rest; don’t you sell no more. The Fed use to rise above the noise and confusion and give us a glimpse beyond the illusion. Yet gold was soaring ever higher and it flew to a high. The threat of bubbles was clear to a blind man. To not fear it to you’d have to be a mad man. I hear the Fed when I'm dreaming and I can hear them say: Carry on my carry trade. We’ll be in pieces when it’s done. Put all your

The RBA raised its economic growth forecasts and expected further gradual lessening of monetary stimulus

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 02:38:11 GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its quarterly monetary policy statement today. The bank raised its economic growth forecasts adding that the economy will grow stronger than anticipated. On the other hand, the bank said that interest rates may increase gradually in the upcoming period. The reserve bank expected the economy to grow 1.75 this year compared with previous forecasts of 0.5% and economic growth is anticipated to accelerate to 2.25% by mid 2010 and to 3.25% by the end of 2010.

The November 4 FOMC Policy Statement Revisited

webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:00:58 GMT

The November 4 FOMC Policy Statement Revisited The economic threshold to bring about a tightening of monetary conditions, although always implicit, was made explicit in the policy statement of November 4 and this aspect needs further elaboration. “Low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations” is the key phrase indicating what could trigger a change in monetary policy. Related to this backdrop is our comment of November 4, 2009 which includes a

US Session News Summary

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:16:57 GMT

Canada Building Permits Canada released its Building Permits for September as it came in at 1.6% as expected from a prior revised reading of 7.4% from 7.2%. US Nonfarm Productivity US released its third quarter preliminary reading of its Nonfarm Productivity showing an incline as it came in at 9.5%; better than the prior revised reading of 6.9% from 6.6% and the forecasted reading of 6.5%. US Unit Labor Costs US released its third quarter preliminary reading of its Unit Labor Costs coming in

Did the Nation Overdose on Debt?

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:44:55 GMT

Long-term Repercussions of Swelling Government Indebtedness “You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.” – Abraham Lincoln Fiscal year 2009 for the United States government drew to a close on Sept. 30, when the closing bell sounded to the sour tune of a $1.417 trillion deficit (Figure 1). Some perspective: 1.4 trillion is equal to 13 times the number of people who have ever lived, or $4,500 for each and every person living in the United States. The stock of debt held

Option traders suggest further retail sector weakness

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:29:12 GMT

XRT – SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Disappointing earnings from a number of retailers such as Aeropostale and American Eagle Outfitters, declining same-store sales at Whole Foods, and gloomy guidance at CVS Caremark Corp are just some of the factors weighing down the retail exchange-traded fund today. Shares of the XRT started the trading session higher but have since edged 1% lower to $33.97. Curiously, dismal data from the retail sector this morning is not curtailing overall market gains.

Trichet offers U.S. his sledgehammer

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:44:51 GMT

The ECB was the last of the three major central banks to leave its short term benchmark rate unchanged today. On Wednesday the Fed reiterated the same message it conveyed in September by stating that policy would remain accommodative. With official short term yields steady investors focused on the posturing and variety of tones apparent within each statement. After today’s ECB press conference its president, Jean Claude Trichet tossed the challenge of a vulnerable dollar back into the court of

Trichet sees upside risks from stimulus measures and recommends governments to withdraw them

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:27:43 GMT

The ECB opted to hold rates steady today at their historic record low of 1.0% while withholding their bond purchase program at the current 60 billion euros. Markets expected that same scenario to take place after the improvement signaled recently, referring that the worst is over. In the conference following the decision, Trichet confirmed that the undergoing monetary measures adopted remains "appropriate" and suitable in the undergoing period to spur economic growth and help the financial

Productivity Increase as the U.S. Economy Returns to Growth, While Jobless Claims Continue to Fall

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:04:08 GMT

The U.S. economy continues to show further signs of improvement, as seemingly the U.S. economy continues to show more signs of recovery from the worst recession since WWII, while the labor market continues to show signs of easing contraction, though unemployment is still expected to continue rising over the upcoming few months. The U.S. Labor Department released the initial jobless claims for the week ending October 30, whereas jobless claims dropped by 20,000 to 512,000 from the prior revised

GoldCore Update: US Interest Rates to Remain Exremely Low for an Extended Period of Time

info@goldcore.com (GoldCore) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:05:44 GMT

Gold Gold dipped slightly overnight but found support at $1,084/oz in the early hours of this morning. It has since recovered and is currently trading at $1,090 /oz. In EUR and GBP terms gold is trading at €735/oz and £659/oz respectively. The US Federal Reserve has signaled that a return to higher interest rates will not be based solely on economic recovery, but dependant also on an increase in inflation and a recovery in the employment market. They remain committed to keeping interest rates

ECB Kept the Interest Rate Unchanged for the Sixth Month

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:27:09 GMT

The European central bank (ECB) held the benchmark interest rate steady at its historical low of 1% for the sixth consecutive month in November. The rate was cut by 3.25% since October to support the economy after the economic deterioration that adversely weighed on all sectors of the economy, amid the lingering effects of the most severe and synchronized downturn since WWII. Today, the bank will announce that they will continue their 60 billion euros bonds purchase plan that started on July 6

Inflation Chartbook: November 2009

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:27:35 GMT

Inflation Worries Appear Overblown, for Now The Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing program and efforts put in place by the Fed and Treasury to combat the financial crisis have raised fears that inflation will soon accelerate. While some fears are warranted, the near-term threat from inflation is likely overstated. Considerable excess capacity exists today and very few firms have any significant pricing power. Discounting remains rampant, rents are falling and wages and salaries are

London Gold Market Report

info@bullionvault.com (BullionVault.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:15:59 GMT

Gold "Targets $1100" as Beijing Insider Says China "Can't Buy Enough Gold" THE PRICE OF GOLD in wholesale 400-ounce form held steady Thursday morning in London as world stock markets slipped. Trading near $1090 and €735 an ounce for US and Eurozone investors, gold was up 4.3% and 3.5% respectively for the week so far. Crude oil crept back above $80 per barrel. The US Dollar slipped on the forex market as the European Central Bank and Bank of England kept their key interest rate on hold at

More Data from the Labor Market Ahead of Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls!

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 12:58:43 GMT

The Federal Open Market Committee confirmed last night that the benchmark interest rates will remain at exceptionally low levels for an extended period of time, as the ongoing economic weakness continue to weigh down on prices and accordingly the Feds have more room to continue their support for economic growth. The Feds signaled indeed that economic activity has been picking up recently, however the Feds still admitted that consumer spending will remain under pressure amid rising

BoE expand APF while interest remain unchanged for eighth month

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 12:30:10 GMT

The nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England (BoE) announced their rate decision keeping them at the current record low of 0.50 percent. In addition, the MPC decided to expand their APF program to 200 billion pounds. The central bank believes that keeping interest steady is the only optimal solution since now they are focused on the asset purchase facility to jolt the nation out of recession, especially after the economy had shown progress starting from the

Euro Zone Retail Sales Plunge, While UK's Industrial and Manufacturing Production Improve

support@ecpulse.com (ecPulse.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:28:14 GMT

The euro zone released its retail sales for September today, ahead of the rate decision that is due later on today as well through Trichet's speech; where he is expected to explain the current situation in the euro zone, inflation and growth prospects. Despite of the improvement seen in various sectors this week; retail sales are showing a decline in September. In August, the reading slipped for 15th month to 2.6% on the year and 0.2% on the month. Today, retail sales for the month of

Euro-Zone Sept retail sales decline more than forecasts

sales@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:09:25 GMT

European Market Update: Euro-Zone Sept retail sales decline more than forecasts; Key European central banks meetings eyed for exit policy guidance ECONOMIC DATA - (PH) Philippines Central Bank maintained its Overnight Borrowing Rate at 4.00%, as expected - (IC) Iceland Sedlabanki cuts its key interest rate by 100bps to 11.00%; more than the 25bps consensus expectations - (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves: $432.8B v $429.3B prior - (SZ) Swiss Oct SECO Consumer Climate: -30 v -38e - (SP)

An Economy at Non-Market Prices

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:45:11 GMT

Inflation or Disappointing Growth Disappointing subpar growth remains our outlook for the economy. This subpar growth will be a challenge to both private and public decision-makers. A realistic, not Pollyannaish, view of the economy begins with a model of the economy as it is—not as we might wish it to be. In this respect, we see an economy characterized by an excess supply of goods, an excess supply of labor and an excess supply of credit. Given this model, we will look at the outlines of